"Researchers have shown that a human in a drowning situation holds their breath for 87 seconds. That's how long the instinct not to breathe can overcome the thought of running out of air; how long a sort of clear-headedness lasts.
"Eighty-seven is the break point . . . The only thing more unpleasant than running out of air is breathing water."
Sebastian Junger's description of drowning in his 1997 non-fiction work, The Perfect Storm, is matter-of-fact.
Coolly delivered, it is also chilling and, given it is the first week of summer, a timely reminder of the danger of water, be it still pool or crashing surf.
Two recent reports - one on the supervision of children at beaches, the other on the lack of swimming skills among children - are cause for alarm.
The first, by University of Auckland academic and long-time lifeguard Kevin Moran, prompted headlines highlighting the fact that a quarter of adults concentrate more on their tans and conversations than on their children playing in the water at surf and flat-water beaches.
Of the 74% who did supervise children, a large number looked after more than one child in the water, and 20% of all parents or caregivers could not swim 100m non-stop in open water.
The second, a Neilsen study commissioned by Water Safety New Zealand and released this week, revealed our children are going backwards when it comes to swimming skills.
They are worse swimmers now than they were in 2001; one in five year 6 pupils (roughly, 11-year-olds) can cover 200m, a distance regarded as necessary to be able to survive.
Only half can manage 25m, and a quarter cannot complete 25m or even tread water.
Such figures have prompted a warning from Water Safety New Zealand general manager Matt Claridge, who presents a bleak look into the future.
"When the findings of the research are matched with increases in population and increasing participation in water-based activities, we believe the drowning toll will exceed 150 deaths per annum within the next 12 years and then up to 180 beyond 2030".
Speaking to the Otago Daily Times this week, Mr Claridge expressed a desire for compulsory swim programmes in schools.
"When you critically assess the state of play, it is pretty abysmal. The biggest issue is getting kids to learn to swim."
New Zealand has one of the highest rates of drowning in the developed world. Water Safety New Zealand figures show an average of 114 deaths per annum from 2003-2007, double that of Australia on a per capita basis.
To the end of last month, 86 people had drowned in New Zealand this year.
Drowning is the third leading cause of unintentional death in this country, behind traffic accidents and falls. Of those, 43% are recreation-based, meaning the victim was in, on or under the water while swimming, boating, fishing or diving.
Accidental immersion (eg, falling into water as opposed to choosing to swim) comprises 30% of drownings.
Of particular significance as we head into summer and holiday season is the fact beaches are a factor in more than a quarter of drownings.
Those most at danger are, surprisingly, not toddlers or young children - despite those beachside supervision findings - but those aged 15 to 24 and those who are 65 and over.
Studies reveal just 2% of all infant drownings occur at beaches. For those under five, the home presents the biggest drowning danger. Reach school age, however, and the beach becomes the most common place to drown.
So swimming skills are important.
The implications of a child not learning to swim continue through the teenage years and into adulthood. The earlier the process of learning to swim is initiated, the better the results, Mr Claridge says.
"You can read it like clockwork. Come mid-to-late January, when parents start going back to work . . . teenagers are out and about; mum is not around telling them what not to do; they wander off to the river or rocks.
"Then they get older and become university students or of that age ... it's the typical Kiwi male - 10 foot tall and bullet-proof - that is evidenced in the stats," Mr Claridge says.
Indeed, males comprise 78% of all drowning victims; at the beach, that figure rises to 83%, reflecting the male tendency to push the boat out, so to speak, and participate in activities deemed more risky.
• Condidence can kill, Dr Moran believes.
Currently in Seattle, working on producing a set of guidelines for the International Task Force on Open Water Drowning Prevention, Dr Moran points to key differences in the estimation of swimming ability between males and females, describing it as "that familiar male disease".
"It's the perception of risk - the twin towers of underestimation of danger and overestimation of ability to cope with that risk - that is most likely to account for the over-representation of males in the drowning stats, not the lack of swimming ability per se."
That perception of ability flows through to supervision.
Dr Moran expresses concern that males appear to be more confident of their children's water coping skills.
"They have a lower perception than females of the drowning risk for their children which may in turn lessen their vigilance when supervising their 5-to-9-year-olds."
Just what constitutes effective supervision is open to interpretation.
Dr Moran's study, though revealing three-quarters of children are safely looked after at the beach, notes the remaining quarter are put at risk by a parent's (or caregiver's) preference to concentrate on a tan, cell phone or conversation rather than their young charges.
He describes adequate supervision as "close and constant without distraction".
At the beach that means being in the water, ready to react to changes in conditions, ready to provide direction and command. And, before even getting to the water's edge, checking the risk and asking advice of lifeguards or others.
The motto: if in doubt keep your children out.
It is up to parents to make executive decisions, not lifeguards, he stresses.
"There appears to be some misunderstanding about the role of lifeguards with significantly more males than females seeing the lifeguards as the main providers of supervision on patrolled beaches - something we lifeguards vehemently disagree with.
"There is plenty of research evidence to suggest that lifeguards cannot effectively oversee hundreds of children at once without parental frontline supervision. The anecdotal evidence from lifeguards and my personal experience over 35 years of lifeguarding suggests that it does put an extra burden on lifeguards."
There are four key points in the conceptual framework for the International Task Force on Open Water Drowning Prevention.
Although these have yet to be advocated worldwide, Dr Moran was prepared to release them as a "sneak preview".
They are:
> Be prepared (take a cell phone, check the water and weather conditions, check tides, check availability of lifeguards).
> Know the dangers (know the shallow/deep water state of the tide, state of rips, water temperature etc).
> Set and follow rules (know your limits, obey safety signs and advice from lifeguards, never swim alone, never mix alcohol and swimming).
> Look after self and others (close and constant supervision, always swim with a buddy).
• Scott Weatherall, a lifeguard at the Brighton Surf Life Saving Club for the past 15 years, has been involved in many surf rescues.
He has also had to track down parents who have dropped children off at the beach or let them go unattended. However, he has been heartened to see an increase in parents at the water's edge in recent years.
"They are taking an interest in what their kids are doing and being a wee bit more proactive. That's a good thing," he said earlier this week.
"We are fortunate in Otago that we're probably in that 75% . . . and kids tend to stay in the water for a shorter time, because the water is so cold. It's not so much of a biggie for mum, dad or a guardian to stand in the water for 10 to 20 minutes or half an hour, versus two hours up north.
"But it is a trend we've only seen increase in the last couple of years. Previously, the supervision was a lot less."
Last summer was a busy one for Otago lifeguards, who were on duty for more than 10,000 hours.
They performed 48 rescues, 39 first-aid related incidences, 17 missing person searches and 6664 preventive actions, all of which affected 14,000 people.
Lifeguards went on duty on November 1 this year and will continue to patrol Otago's main beaches until March 15.
Mr Weatherall's advice is simple: swim on patrolled beaches between the flags.
Of the various rescues in which he has been involved, some have included members of the public swimming at unpatrolled beaches.
He mentions the beach at Ocean View, where a strong rip has resulted in groups being swept out to sea after a spur of the moment dip in the surf.
As a member of the multi-disciplinary Dunedin Water Rescue Squad for nearly 10 years, Mr Weatherall has dealt with fatalities.
He warns of the dangers of wearing ill-fitting, heavy clothing when entering the surf. And drinking and swimming is a no-no.
"I think shows like Piha Rescue, although controversial at times, highlight the message around what a lifeguard does and the main surf safety principles.
"Our common key messages are, obviously, swim between the flags-and we are seeing more recognition from parents and children on what the flags are all about . . . That is just what we believe is the safest part of the beach is.
"If we couldn't find an area of the beach that was safe, we'd close the beach or suggest members of the public don't swim there. We can't, by law, stop people, going into the water."
The Moran report
More than 700 parents/caregivers were surveyed at 18 beaches in the upper North Island last year.
• One quarter (24%) of children were not adequately supervised.
• Most supervision (74%) was done by a single person irrespective of the number of children in the water.
• A small proportion (3%) were being supervised by other children.
• Of the 130 parents/caregivers failing to provide adequate supervision, one third (30%) lay on the beach sunbathing, one quarter (28%) talked to other people and one quarter (27%) used cellphones.
• Most adults (57%) considered their 5-9-year-olds to be good swimmers; significantly more males than females estimated their 5-9-year-old children to be good swimmers (males 66%, females 50%).
• Most parents/caregivers estimated slight or no drowning risk for their children (under-5s, 60%: 5-9-year-olds, 82%).
• One fifth of parents/caregivers considered the drowning risk for under-5 children to be extremely risky (20%) or very risky (19%).
• Most parents of under 5-year-olds, reported that they stayed close to their children in the water (71%); almost one quarter reported they watched them constantly from the beach (23%).
• For the older 5-9 years age group, supervision from the beach became the most frequently reported supervisory behaviour (46%).
Neilsen report
Key findings of the Nielsen report into the swimming and water safety skills of year 6 and year 8 pupils.
• Compared with the results obtained from a similar 2001 survey, teachers' perceptions are that the level of swimming and aquatic skills their students possess are getting worse.
• Teachers believe a quarter of their year 6 students are not able to complete a distance of 25m, or manage to keep afloat and tread water.
• At year 8 level, four in 10 (41%) teachers say that at least half of their pupils are capable of performing these tasks.
• Several schools cite lack of support from the Ministry of Education as a factor that resulted in the closure of their pool.
• Other schools struggle to provide lessons at outside facilities and say the Ministry of Education is not doing enough to help.
