Study Dunedin co-ordinator Margo Reid said there had been "heart-warming stories" of some students due to finish their studies deciding to extend their enrolments, but the number of students in the city was changing weekly as governments organised repatriation flights that included international students from Dunedin.
University of Otago international director Jason Cushen said the university expected about 2200 international students this year, and even with a cap on intake of 15% of enrolments, and some international students enrolling for online study in Semester 2, Covid-19 would have a "substantial" impact on the institution.
"While the majority of our full-year and first-semester international students did make it here before the Covid-19 shutdown, a number did not. Subsequently, a number have returned home. Obviously there is further disruption ahead for semester 2," he said.
"Just as we are still assessing the exact enrolment impact, so we are still working out the financial impact."
Infometrics estimates half of the 32,000 international education sector-related jobs in New Zealand will be lost due to the effects of Covid-19.
Auckland would be hardest hit but international education contributes about 2% of Dunedin’s economy, and around 1.1% of Queenstown’s.
International education brought in $88million to the Queenstown economy last year, Study Queenstown executive manager Aaron Halstead said.
A total of 1780 pupils and students helped to support 980 education sector jobs.
He stressed the importance of keeping well-educated and experienced teachers in jobs and the importance of New Zealand’s recovery.
"You’d be a bit remiss to not be seriously concerned right now," he said. "It will take a hit for sure. It’s also about how it recovers — and the messaging out of it. And ensuring ‘brand New Zealand’ is strong and stable."
Ms Reid said the latest figures showed in 2017-18 the industry added $197million to Dunedin’s economy, accounting for 5000 students and supporting 2214 jobs.
While the number of students had not increased, the sector’s economic value "almost certainly" had.
"Undoubtedly the industry will change over the next six to 12 months as the world resets itself in the face of the global pandemic. For Dunedin, we believe this will happen in stages with a smaller impact in the short term, and depending on future border restrictions, possibly a larger impact in the medium term."
The hit had been felt far more sharply for Language Schools New Zealand owner Guy Hughes, of Queenstown.
This year had been shaping up to be possibly the school’s best, with about 90 students before lockdown and another 30 students enrolled for April. Now at the 100-student capacity school there were 40 learning remotely and students graduating out of the programme regularly.
"Level 1, 2, 3, 4 doesn’t make much difference to us ... our whole business is bringing students from overseas," Mr Hughes said.
Otago Secondary Principals’ Association president Linda Miller was not surprised by the estimation of massive job losses.
Some Otago secondary schools relied on income from international students to supplement Government funding to provide all students with additional teachers, additional learning support and IT hardware and infrastructure, as well as sporting and cultural equipment and personnel.
Southern Institute of Technology chief executive Penny Simmonds said international student numbers had not "changed markedly" at the school. — Additional reporting Hugh Collins, John Lewis, and Luisa Girao