It comes after US President Donald Trump confirmed yesterday that US forces struck Iran’s three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow — six bunker buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites.
University of Otago international relations Professor Robert Patman said that it would be naive to assume this attack would lead to any wind-down of the conflict.
"I think it’s reflective of the fact that Mr Trump and his administration are living in something of a bubble.
"The idea that Iran is going to roll over after being hit by six bunker buster bombs and about 30 cruise missiles I think is fantasy.
"I think this whole operation is based on a very shaky operating assumption that you can eliminate the threat by bombing it away."
Prof Patman said Iran, over the years, had "never said it wants nuclear weapons".
"It says it wants what many other countries have, which is a civilian nuclear energy generation capacity."
Mr Trump was dealing with a "crisis of his own making".
"He had a perfectly workable deal called the US-Iran nuclear deal, which was negotiated by the Obama administration, but Mr Trump proceeded to walk away from that — and of course, Iran no longer felt bound by its terms."
Iran had the knowledge to reconstruct its nuclear capability if it so desired, Prof Patman said.
"We have knowledge that most of the material at these sites was evacuated sometime ago.
"So have the US just used very expensive bombs to little effect?
"We don’t know," he said.
"I think many Middle Eastern countries will be pretty upset with Mr Trump because this could become a region-wide conflict now, particularly if the Iranian leadership decide they’re going to make his life very difficult by targeting American personnel and interests."
Prof Patman called the strikes against Iran "likely illegal".
"Iran has said repeatedly that it is a victim in this situation. It’s not the aggressor.
"As the victim, under Article 51 of the UN Charter, it’s got the right of self-defence," he said.
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins said yesterday the government was pursuing all options for assisting New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel.
As part of government efforts to pursue all options for assisting New Zealanders in harm’s way, government personnel and a C-130J Hercules aircraft are being deployed to the Middle East and will stand ready to assist if needed.
The government was also in discussion with commercial airlines to assess how they may be able to assist.
The situation in the Middle East was "fast-moving" and it will take several days for the C-130J Hercules, scheduled to leave Auckland today, to reach the region, they said.
Mr Peters called for "diplomacy", saying that would be the path to peace in the Middle East — not further "military action".
There were estimated to be about 50 New Zealanders in Iran and 80 in Israel, he said.
Last week, the last remaining New Zealand diplomats in Iran fled the country after the government made repeated calls for New Zealanders to stay out of Iran.
Meanwhile, all New Zealanders in the Middle East — not just in Iran and Israel — were urged to register on SafeTravel.
Prof Patman said while these initiatives were good and necessary, New Zealand could be doing far more on a world stage.
"New Zealand has got an international reputation for, first of all, wanting the abolition of nuclear weapons, but also for pursuing its own non-nuclear security policy.
"This US attack on Iran, in my view, is a reckless and illegal act — it’s likely to make the world less secure rather than more secure.
"It’s time for New Zealand to press for the reform of the UN Security Council.
"The UN Security Council should not be a bystander because one of its key members is breaking international law."
