Southern residents can expect a gentle drop into winter this year.
Niwa’s latest long-term forecast shows the next three months (April-June) are likely to be warmer and drier than usual in Otago and Southland.
Forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said that for April-June, air pressure was expected to be lower than normal to the northwest and higher than normal to the east of the country.
"Although air flows will be mixed, slightly more easterly quarter winds are favoured for the three-month period as a whole."
As a result, Otago and Southland could expect to have rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows which were about equally likely to be below normal or near normal.
"Low pressure systems are expected to be more common in the New Zealand region during April and there is an elevated chance for heavy rain events in the middle part of the month."
Mr Brandolino said the La Nina weather system which had been over New Zealand since November last year had now "waned considerably".
It was now transitioning to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, he said.
"It is well under way, but it will likely take an additional month for the transition to fully occur."
As La Nina fully faded, weather patterns could be conducive to northern low pressure systems
during April-May and drier than normal conditions in southern parts of the country during May-June, he said.
Temperatures in the regions were also equally likely to be above average or near average.
"While cold snaps and frosts will occur periodically, they aren’t expected to define the season."
