Coalition would lose power in new political poll

The coalition, led by (from left) David Seymour, Christopher Luxon and Winston Peters, could not...
The coalition, led by (from left) David Seymour, Christopher Luxon and Winston Peters, could not return to power if an election was held today. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
By Anneke Smith of RNZ

A new political poll shows a bump in support for National, though not enough for the coalition to form a government.

The Taxpayers' Union-Curia results - taken between August 31 and September 2 - shows support for National is up 1.3 points to 33.1%.

New Zealand First is up 0.3 points to 8.1%, while the ACT party is down 1.9 points to 6.7%.

On these numbers, National would gain two MPs (42 seats), ACT would lose three MPs (eight seats) with no change for New Zealand First (10 seats).

Sitting at a combined 60 seats, the centre-right bloc could not return to power if an election were held today.

Labour remains the largest party in the poll - up 0.2 points to 33.8%, with the Greens up 0.9 points to 10.7% and Te Pāti Māori up 1.1 point to 4.3%.

The results would see Labour lose one MP (42 seats), the Greens gain one MP (13 seats) with no change for Te Pāti Māori (6 seats).

With 61 seats, the centre-left bloc could form a government.

The coalition has been under pressure to deliver good economic news in recent months as the cost of living squeeze persists.

Taxpayers' Union spokesman James Ross said this latest poll was a wake-up call for National and its coalition partners.

"This government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they've been unable to deliver.

"If National want to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief."

Party vote

Labour 33.8%, up 0.2 points (42 seats, down one)

National 33.1%, up 1.3 points (42 seats, up two)

Greens 10.7%, up 0.9 points (13 seats, up one)

New Zealand First 8.1%, up 0.3 points (10, no change)

ACT 6.7%, down 1.9 points (8 seats, down three)

Te Pāti Māori 4.3%, up 1.1 points (6 seats, no change)

For the minor parties, TOP is down 1.5 points to 1.1%, Outdoors and Freedom is down 0.3 points to 0.8%, Vision NZ is up 0.2 points to 0.6% and New Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 0.3%.

Cost of Living remains voters' top issue at 27.5% (+3.1 points), followed by the economy more generally at 16.1% (-4.6 points).

Health is the third largest issue at 11.1% (+1.1 per cent), followed by employment on 7.5% and taxes on 4.7%.

In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon is up 1.5 points from last month to 21.7%, while Chris Hipkins is down 2.5 points to 17.7%.

Winston Peters is up 2.7 points to 10.9%, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 0.8 points to 8.8%, and David Seymour is down 2.5 points to 3.7%.

Preferred prime minister

Christopher Luxon: 21.7%, up 1.5 points

Chris Hipkins: 17.7%, down 2.5 points

Winston Peters: 10.9%, up 2.7 points

Chlöe Swarbrick: 8.8%, up 0.8 points

David Seymour: 3.7%, down 2.5 points

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.

It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 8.2% were undecided on the party vote question.

Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.