No-deal Brexit could benefit NZ, academic says

Andrew Geddis
Andrew Geddis
A Brexit with no deal between Britain and the European Union would spell economic and political disaster for Britain - though it could mean New Zealand securing a better trade deal, a public law specialist says.

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal was defeated in Parliament yesterday, and the country now had 10 weeks before it was due to leave the European Union.

The Guardian reported Mrs May sustained the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any British prime minister in the democratic era, MPs rejecting her Brexit deal by a majority of 230.

Prof Andrew Geddis, of the University of Otago Faculty of Law, said Britain faced three options: a ''hard Brexit'' with no deal, remaining part of the union, or managing to negotiate a new agreement.

The third option was considered the least likely by most commentators, but no-one knew what would happen, he said.

''Britain has 10 weeks unless the EU agrees to extend that timeframe.

''The clock is ticking down.''

If Britain stayed within the EU, there was no immediate disadvantage to New Zealand.

Any agreement struck with the country could not have come into effect before 2021 anyway.

If Britain left without any deal, it would be free to form new trade agreements as soon as it could, and New Zealand could strike ''very favourable'' terms.

Yet that had to be weighed against the cost of political turmoil and possible economic ruin for Britain, Prof Geddis said.

''All the predictions are that it would be very bad for the UK economy,'' he said.

If the economy got too bad, Britain also might make a less than ideal trading partner.

The balance of power on the global stage would also shift.

A hard Brexit would weaken the EU and potentially give Russia more sway.

elena.mcphee@odt.co.nz

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