New economic data has revealed which parts of Otago and Southland are likely to struggle most as they recover from the enormous impact of Covid-19.
The new index that allows for comparison of post-lockdown economic hardship risk could allow southern councils to provide better targeted recovery programmes.
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The figures provided to the Otago Daily Times by Wellington analytics firm DOT Loves Data provide further statistical support for current regional economic concerns in places like Queenstown, while revealing a more complex picture at the suburban and rural level.
DOT Loves Data government director Justin Lester said the company designed the index tool to provide a simple way for regional authorities to assess which areas were most vulnerable to economic hardship as they emerge from the Covid-19 crisis.
"Covid-19 is a black swan event with enormous implications for New Zealand communities.
"The public and private sectors were not prepared for the scale of the impact and the swiftness of the required response, so we helped by building a range of data-driven tools to help with future planning and decision-making."
The hardship and three other tools were in use by about 50 "public sector organisations" at present, including some councils, he said.
They worked by analysing data including types of employment, types of accommodation, population income levels, benefit uptake, and "deprivation indices".
Because they allowed for finer analysis to the SA2 level (suburbs and rural areas of up to 5000 people), authorities could use them to target the areas of greatest need, Mr Lester said.
"It allows us and users to analyse impacts at a local level and gain unique insights about, for example, North East Valley compared with Caversham or the Catlins."
The index was divided into nationwide deciles, meaning areas with figures between nine and 10, such as Queenstown-Lakes District (9.6), were in the highest economic risk group in New Zealand.
Other parts of the South, including Invercargill (4.6), and Waitaki and Clutha (both 4.8), appeared set to fare better.
The Invercargill City Council did not respond to a request for comment, but Clutha Mayor Bryan Cadogan said the data supported what he was seeing in his region.
"We seem to have been fortunate here in Clutha, and although many locals have been hit hard individually, collectively we’re in a good position to be part of the solution for the South, and New Zealand as a whole."
Queenstown-Lakes Mayor Jim Boult said the analysis was "no surprise", but he wished to remain focused on the positive steps now being taken towards recovery.
"[This] is no surprise given how reliant our economy has been on tourism.
"How do we now bring people and prosperity back to what has long been the jewel in the crown? We’ll continue to pull together to take our economy and livelihoods ... upward."
