Given all the wet weather lately, many southern residents might be longing for the relief with a warm, dry Christmas.
Sadly, a clear Christmas Day without more rain will not be happening this year.
MetService has updated its forecast to show the run of wet weather will continue on Christmas and right through to Boxing Day.
A MetService spokesman said a brief ridge would sit over the North Island on Christmas Day, while a front moved up the South Island through the day.
"A deep low develops along this front just to the east of central New Zealand late Friday, and drifts northeast this weekend, bringing a cold, unsettled southerly flow to eastern parts of the country."
It would also bring heavy rain to Dunedin and North Otago, in particular, but it was unlikely the rainfall accumulations would reach warning criteria on Friday and Saturday.
The low would pull away on Monday as another ridge became established across New Zealand, he said.
Despite the soggy Christmas forecast, the weather on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day could be a different story — particularly in the inland holiday spots.
For Alexandra, Wanaka and Queenstown, MetService is forecasting a warm and dry start to the year, with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 20s.
Unfortunately, those on the east and south coast can expect more wet weather.
While the Christmas and Boxing Day forecasts were pretty much set in stone, he said the new year forecasts were not.
It was still more than a week until New Year’s Day, and there was still significant uncertainty about the weather forecast that far out.
Deterministic computer models provided the most probable single solution from one computer model, and gave a reasonable idea out to six days.
But at eight days, it was pushing the limits of forecasts’ accuracy, he said.
