Optimism and innovation in 2012

Every new year starts with hope. We hope for better things for our family and friends. We read about the terrible crimes committed against others and are thankful that we were not involved.

Traffic statistics dominate many holiday headlines and we worry about family members on long drives during their summer breaks. In other respects, the arrival of 2012 will prove challenging for even the most committed among a nation of optimists.

While the past year did have its moments of excitement and passion - winning the World Cup, for example - the Canterbury earthquakes were never far from the collective minds of the nation.

Domestically, the fate and state of the economy - and all that flows from it - largely hang on the rebuilding of Christchurch which seems likely to be even further delayed, following the pre-Christmas quakes.

Land which had previously been declared fit for rebuilding, has to be reassessed once more. But the strength of the spirit of Christchurch was declared on Christmas Day when thousands attended outdoor church services.

Whether such resilience of character and temperament is rewarded by an improvement in economic conditions is yet to be seen.

Growth is tipped to be below 3% again, and unless the rebuild takes off rapidly, low growth is forecast for the next two or more years. With inflation hovering above 3%, it is easy to see the migration of yet more skilled workers to Australia and further afield.

This will in turn affect the pace of the rebuild - which will require numerous buildings to be completed each week for 10 years to get the city back to where it was before September 2010. There is talk of bringing in immigrant labour for the rebuilding, but first and foremost jobs should go to New Zealanders.

Internationally, the ongoing credit crises in Europe and the United States will dictate how the year transpires for the New Zealand economy. Interest rates around the world are at record lows.

New Zealanders seem to have taken on the message to reduce debt and save more, with saving taking the form of both reducing a mortgage or increasing savings in a superannuation scheme.

The success of KiwiSaver has shown that young people are starting to learn that compound interest is one of the most effective wealth creators.

The US presidential election is likely to stall further the US economic recovery, and the euro zone governments remain reluctant to take any action that further hurts their respective causes. Both these factors will impact on New Zealand's economic prospects.

Among the best of these reside in a strong Australian economy, but even the signs for this are not great. Take away the mining sector and the Australian economy is in worse shape than New Zealand's, and mining is beginning to lose its gloss.

The extent of the tarnish depends on how Asia, and in particular, China, fares over the next year.

Downturns in the US and Europe mean downturns in China's export receipts and a slowing of its behemoth economy - potentially dampening demand for this country's primary produce.

Still, in the longer term Asia appears to be the brightest hope for New Zealand, and 2012 could be the year the sometimes controversial free-trade agreements come into their own.

Former prime minister Jim Bolger was well before his time when in the early 1990s he called for New Zealanders to regard themselves as part of Asia.

Our dairy exports continue to do well in Asian markets. Commodity prices have been strong, and that includes meat and wool. The strength of the New Zealand dollar is seen as hindering export sales but can encourage inward investment in this country.

To make real economic progress, New Zealand needs to do what it does best: innovate. Our best and brightest need to be encouraged to stay here or return, bringing their expertise and experience with them. Without their help, the country will remain on a growth plateau.

There will be no closing of the gaps with Australia.

Each new year provides a wealth of opportunities, and 2012 will be no exception. But we, as a nation, need to be creative, imaginative - and positive - to use them to our best advantage.

 

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