Although it may be presumptuous to predict the failure of "peace" efforts, Russian President Vladimir Putin holds the prime position. He has been the puppet master pulling the strings.
President Putin has conceded nothing so far. Instead, he has gained international stature and a domestic boost, thanks to the red-carpet treatment from the United States leader on US soil.
Not bad for an alleged war criminal facing arrest in countries that accept the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction.
Mr Putin has secured Mr Trump’s support to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea and large parts of eastern Ukraine.
It is highly doubtful he would reverse earlier bottom lines and agree to security guarantees that are effective, long-term, and trustworthy, even if talks progressed that far.
Perhaps Mr Putin would settle for the territorial gains discussed with Mr Trump, including a crucial strategic area of the Donbas still held by Ukraine.
Meanwhile, he has not even had to accept a ceasefire, a condition Mr Trump earlier insisted upon.
His tactic is to sever Mr Trump’s support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He and Mr Trump have reached an understanding that he knows is virtually impossible for Mr Zelenskyy to accept, both for constitutional reasons and due to Ukrainian public opinion. Ceding territory through force is also entirely illegal under the United Nations Charter.
In the end, direct talks, if they ever properly start, will go nowhere. Mr Zelenskyy may receive the blame in Mr Trump’s mind, and crucial US intelligence, military, and other support could be cut off. Meanwhile, Russia continues grinding down Ukraine and grinding out more territory.
Mr Trump’s earlier threats of secondary sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s oil sales to China and India have come to nothing. Other stricter direct sanctions have also not been applied.
When agreements are not reached, possible international security guarantees lose their relevance.
It was little wonder that Europe’s premier leaders rushed to Washington DC to support Mr Zelenskyy. Mr Putin’s manipulation of Mr Trump and lack of commitments are plain to them.
Their tactic is to show willingness by pushing for a ceasefire, something Mr Trump, parroting Mr Putin, no longer deems necessary.
While their obsequiousness towards Mr Trump is sickening, what alternative do they have when facing an erratic, narcissistic bully who leads the world’s most powerful nation?
Mr Zelenskyy has learned the hard way the necessity of grovelling.
The lessons of history are clear. Hitler’s Germany absorbed Austria and occupied the Sudetenland in 1938, and the world complied. Appeasement failed, and Poland was next.
Mr Putin has not even had to commit to meeting Mr Zelenskyy. He has persuaded Mr Trump, shifting the pressure on to Ukraine and its president. Hopefully, Mr Putin has overreached.
Part of us might wish the West, including the US, would support Ukraine with all guns blazing: smash Russia inside Ukraine with shock and awe, and apply full force in every other way short of invasion. After all, Mr Putin, like Mr Trump, respects only power.
Of course, that cannot happen. The stakes are sky-high, and the consequences — intended or otherwise — are terrifying. Becoming deeply entangled in other people’s wars almost always ends badly.
Mr Putin’s earlier rumblings about nuclear retaliation remain a warning. Even if he is highly unlikely to go that far, the consequences would be so catastrophic that even a slim chance is a gamble not worth taking.
Realistically, Crimea, occupied since 2014, is lost to Ukraine. In the end, other territory may also have to be forfeited.
Yet Ukraine is not ready to capitulate, and Mr Putin has invested too much to pull back.
Mr Trump is right about one thing: Ukraine and most of the world want the killing to stop. Whether Mr Putin does is another matter entirely.
