So the recession is over, is it? That is the official, technical view: 15 months of recession ended with a 0.1% rise in economic output over the June 2009 quarter; a "fragile" recovery is taking place but there is caution on all sides.
The view from George St, Dunedin, is somewhat different. If the recession is over, many retailers have yet to witness it.
The level of pre-Christmas discounting has been extraordinary as traders try to keep the cashflow going and move stock.
Goodness only knows what their plans will be for January and February.
There was some evidence of improved trading this week and it might continue to improve next week, but few business owners are expecting a Christmas miracle, let alone a New Year sales boost.
A "gradual economic recovery" is forecast by officials but it is obvious local economies will have a mixed response to the conditions.
In Dunedin, there was even some speculation this week that the impact of the recession may only just have arrived.
The forecasters believe business confidence on a national basis is consistent with optimistic estimated economic growth of 4% next year, a percentage which, if achieved, will amount to a remarkable turnaround.
It will be led by the provincial economies, helped by Fonterra's anticipated increased payout for the 2009-10 season to $6.05 per kilogram of milk solids, which could put another $1.2 billion into the economy.
It demonstrates that the New Zealand economy has put a lot of its eggs in one export basket.
However, there are hopes prices will improve further as the world recovers from the recession.
Inflation is expected to remain constrained, with unemployment likely to peak by the middle of next year to levels not seen since 1994.
Another significant indicator - house prices - are still well below 2007 levels and likely to remain relatively steady.
The Treasury's economic update published this week was generally more optimistic than a year ago, but the position the economy faces is still severe.
Government surpluses are expected now to return two years earlier, by 2016, but government debt will still rise to an extraordinary $64.9 billion by 2013 and the burden on the public will continue to grow.
By comparison, it is $17.1 billion this year.
This means tighter conditions are a certainty - unless the Government decides future administrations can worry about the problem of paying the higher debt burden in years to come.
This is unlikely, given the recent promises to business leaders of an economic plan, which will be announced with the Budget, and the Prime Minister's confidence people will accept it.
Undoubtedly, it will include measures to increase state revenues, but little of substance has been made public yet.
Quite properly, the Treasurer has warned that the risks to the economy remain and growth, such as it is, could again return to a negative position.
Predictably, the Council of Trade Unions thinks the Government should be putting more money into creating jobs for workforce entrants and those made jobless.
This is false economy, since growth will not come from subsidising jobs but by the private sector building the conditions in which they can be created.
Nor should the Government try to spend its way out of these recessionary times by borrowing yet more money.
Next year's Budget will present a very restrained spending model, even given the better conditions.
Changes to the tax system should encourage savings and investment, and a greater focus on food production (rather than industrial growth), research and development, oil and gas exploration and production, and the cutting out of waste in the state sector will send a clear message of change.
With lower tax revenues, new spending limited to $1.1 billion, and new capital spending to stay at about $1.45 billion, there is little room to manoeuvre.
There are some very difficult problems for this or future governments to solve.
In less than 15 years, unless major changes take place, average incomes will have grown to levels subject to the top tax rate of 38c in the dollar.
By that time, too, the costs of the greater number of New Zealanders demanding national superannuation and high levels of care from the public hospital system will be unsustainable - unless the demand for spending can be matched by growth in the economy.
How to achieve that will be the focus of the Budget, according to the Government.
It is a strategy that cannot come soon enough
