A contrary stance on Russia

New Zealand has been garnering worldwide media coverage because of its refusal to expel any Russian diplomats in response to the nerve agent attack in the United Kingdom on former spy Sergei Skripal.

More than 150 Russian officials have been expelled from more than 25 countries, and the UK Government is considering further measures to punish Russia, including a ban on the City of London from selling Russian sovereign debt.

After Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern first denied there were any Russian spies in New Zealand, her deputy and Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters later confirmed there is Russian intelligence activity in New Zealand. In answer to a question in Parliament, Mr Peters said the NZSIS advised it is aware of Russian intelligence activity in New Zealand and where it is seen, appropriate action is taken.

He and Ms Ardern have been advised there is no individual here in New Zealand fitting the profile of those being expelled by other countries. If there were, action would have been taken a long time before the Salisbury attacks on double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.

It has been difficult to understand why New Zealand, a member of the Five-Eyes intelligence network which also includes the UK, the United States, Canada and Australia, has been reluctant to join the process of expelling Russian diplomats.

One of the reasons could be Mr Peters’ desire for a trading agreement with Russia.

As part of the coalition agreement, New Zealand First secured a pledge to work towards a free-trade agreement with the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union — commonly known as the EEU — and seek Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations.

Russia indicated last year it was willing to restart the free-trade talks with New Zealand halted after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. In 2014, New Zealand suspended free-trade negotiations with Russia and its customer union partners Belarus and Kazakhstan over the conflict on the Crimean peninsula, having almost finalised an FTA after four years of talks.

NZ First had clear trade policies on which it campaigned last year and it will be of no surprise if Mr Peters still harbours a desire to see a trade deal with the EEU pushed through, at some stage.

New Zealand’s economy is trade focused. The Government recently signed up to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free-trade agreement involving 11 countries in the Pacific region.

Mr Peters, who will become prime minister when Ms Ardern takes maternity leave, may wish to indicate globally New Zealand remains open for business, despite the poisonings in the UK.

New Zealand’s decision to not participate in the 26-nation solidarity pact came after a direct request from UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Government and despite the fact the collective action is largely symbolic.

Russia has threatened to stop buying food from Australia, causing Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop to respond with disappointment.

For some countries, this is just a diplomatic game. For others, like the US and the UK, much more is at stake. New Zealand has nothing to lose from expelling perhaps two or three Russians. They are likely to be low-level diplomats who can be recalled sometime in the future.

There is of course the possibility there are no real Russian spies in New Zealand, or if there are, they cannot be identified. It does seem a large stretch, however, a member of the Five Eyes coalition does not attract at least some passing attention from Russia. After all, it seems from a distance to be a much easier process to secure intelligence from a country like New Zealand than, say, the US or Canada.

The issue now for the Government is how to condemn Russian actions with more than words. Ms Ardern and Mr Peters have got themselves into a tangle over what to do next. However, it is Ms Ardern who must front up and explain to New Zealanders what her Government is expecting to gain in such a contrary stance on Russia.