Democracy, China and the US

A global think tank announced at the end of last year that China will overtake the United States as the world largest economy much sooner than expected.

That was one of the impacts of momentous 2020.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research, in its annual report, said the change at the top was expected in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated.

The contrasting economic recoveries after Covid-19 was given as the reason.

The past year has been poor for the West in all sorts of ways. There has not only been the direct health and economic impacts from Covid but also a loss of confidence and esteem.

At the same time, China can — and does — crow about its system of government and its effective control of Covid, even though it is understood to have begun in the wet markets of Wuhan.

It has seemed apparent to the West that societies should be governed by liberal democracies. They provide peace, protection and prosperity as well as dignity and freedom.

Each generation — at least until now — has been materially richer, lived longer and, generally, had more freedoms.

It is accepted that democracy is at times messy. It has lots of flaws. This style of politics threatens unity, gives power to vested interests, contains potential for inequity, can persecute minorities and can be hijacked.

But, as Winston Churchill famously said in 1947: “Many forms of government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No-one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”

Yet, this is the form of governing that in the states of Europe and America has failed to protect both its citizens and its economies. With the island exceptions of Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia (mostly), democracy did not deliver.

This comes on top of an era when the mistruths of the Brexit campaign and the inveterate lies of Donald Trump held considerable sway, when trust in the Establishment has disintegrated, when nationalism and populism in the likes of Turkey, India, Poland and Hungary are used to subvert human rights and democracy itself.

It comes at a time when democracy appears to be delivering to the rich and powerful and to the corporations. But its common accompaniment, “neo-liberal” economics, does not seem to be creating the jobs, the dignity and the shared wealth needed to cement cohesion and satisfaction.

On the surface it would seem China — an authoritarian, capitalist dictatorship — is an alternative. Those in charge know they must keep delivering better standards of living. Support from the people is buttressed by nationalism.

Nevertheless, rumours of the decline of democracy could well be exaggerated. The United States has survived a corrupt president and massive misinformation. Europe could well bounce back from Covid. Britain will muddle through, albeit poorer, after its foolish Brexit. India has immense strength. Vaccines provide promise for recoveries from Covid.

The feedback citizens give to their rulers — even in an age of false information and fake news — is essential for good decision making, for dealing with the discontent and problem points. And the rulers, through the ballot box, know they are accountable, that they must listen and respond.

China, too, despite its vast population and power, is vulnerable.

Weaknesses include its declining comparative manufacturing advantage, its ageing population, environmental degradation, its heavily indebted banks and state enterprises and the vast amounts it needs to spend on internal security.

China, too, through the millennia often has been a powerhouse.

Given it has four times the population of the United States, it would be reasonable these days to expect its economy to be massive, whatever its power structure.