Not only did Mr Luxon vehemently deny that he had any intention of stepping down as leader of the National Party, he was also adamant that his entire caucus supported his leadership.
Speculation has been rife for months that Mr Luxon’s grasp on the tiller of the National Party was loosening. Some party insiders have long agitated for change; some well-sourced journalists have speculated that MPs might have scouted the lie of the land for signs of a mood for change before beating a strategic retreat.
All of that accumulated tension burst last week when the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll was released, which recorded National as having dropped 2.9 points to 28.4%. The poll has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.1%, so it could have been better — or worse.
Intriguingly, much of that 2.9% drop seems to have gone to parties outside of Parliament, rather than inside — voters may have a sense of wishing a plague on all your houses at this point of the electoral cycle.
Some will dismiss the furore of the past 72 hours as nothing more than a beat-up — or, as Mr Luxon phrased it yesterday, ‘‘the media going a bit bananas’’.
There is an argument to be made along those lines — once one outlet reports a party leader’s future is in jeopardy most other outlets will feel obliged to match that story, creating a snowball effect of speculation which may lack any substance.
But, having said that, such stories do not emerge out of thin air. Someone wanted those numbers in the public domain sooner rather than later and the likely results of the Curia poll were leaked widely well before its publication.
That started the Luxon leadership story rolling down the hill and it gathered momentum on Friday as Mr Luxon cancelled one of his scheduled appointments. It reached such a pace that he had to hastily arrange a radio interview late on Friday afternoon to try to put the brakes on rumours of his demise.
That did not bring the story to a halt though. Rather it left it teetering on the brink over the weekend before getting rolling again yesterday as MPs returned to Wellington.
Politicians of all parties are well versed in electoral mathematics, and well aware of what sort of swing it would take for them to lose their electorate seat or what percentage of the party vote would get them back in on the list.
If National did indeed poll 28.4% in the November 7 election, that would likely mean several senior MPs would be looking for work on November 9. That is a prospect that even the most poll-sceptical politician would take notice of.
Yesterday reporters prowled the parliamentary precinct looking for National MPs to grill, all of whom expressed confidence in Mr Luxon. With no declared challenger they could hardly do anything else.
However, events of the past few days should have given even the usually serenely self-confident Mr Luxon cause for pause and reflection. At a time when he should be looking across the chamber and targetting the Opposition he is instead looking behind him and pondering the enemy within.
One of the assets that Mr Luxon has traded on is that he is not a career politician. He may be ruing that now as this is the time where he needs a solid caucus faction behind him and a raft of IOUs to cash in.
More crucially, Mr Luxon needs to demonstrate that he is more than a chief executive — that he is a leader, and that he is the leader to carry National to victory at the next election. He certainly did his best on that score yesterday, focusing his post-Cabinet press conference on the Gulf War rather than himself.
The public, however seemingly, remain to be convinced on Mr Luxon’s leadership credentials. If he cannot convince them of that in the weeks ahead, then his caucus may well follow suit.
