Trump the biggest loser

The news just keeps getting better from the United States midterm elections, much to the relief of the wider world.

In particular, the age of serial liar, misogynist and bully Donald Trump appears to be ending — to the benefit of democracy, the United States and everywhere else.

Against a backdrop of inflation, fears about immigration and crime and an unpopular president, many pundits were expecting a red (Republican) wave to sweep the House of Representatives. It seemed likely the Republicans would also take control of the Senate.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump. Caricature by Shaun Yeo.
Acolytes and supporters of former president Donald Trump were expected to do well not just by winning seats in Washington DC but by being elected to key roles across key states.

Faith in US democracy, already bashed and buffeted, would have been imperilled further.

What emerged quickly was the failure of many of Trump’s candidates. Although a few did well, one lost a crucial Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Nevada has also just gone the Democrats’ way.

They now have the crucial tally of 50 seats in the Senate, and Georgia is still to be decided in a run-off.

The biggest individual winner in the elections was Ron DeSantis, easily taking the governorship of Florida, the third-largest state. He is Mr Trump’s potential nemesis, a right-winger being widely touted as the next Republican presidential candidate.

Such has been the influence of Mr Trump that any Republican who did not buy into his agenda and his lies failed to receive Republican nominations. That might be changing, as the party take stock of their flops.

These elections have been the best for the party of the president for the past 20 years. They had no right to be.

It is said that centralist Americans - and yes, some are still not polarised - are sick of Mr Trump’s 2020 election-denying claims. Younger citizens, especially, have voted Democrat in larger proportions than their elders.

Enough voters want governments that function and do not trample on individual rights as is occurring over abortion. They want elected officials who follow electoral processes and will work together.

The January 6 “insurrection” and the House inquiry have further exposed Mr Trump’s character.

Focus is turning to the race for 218 seats in the House. While the Republicans remain favourites to win a majority as the last seats are tallied, the vote has proved much closer than expected.

A Republican majority would curtail the January 6 hearings, much to Mr Trump’s relief, as well as attempt to knock back the climate change measures of President Joe Biden, retain tax cuts and institute an inquiry into the activities of Mr Biden’s son in China and Ukraine.

An announcement Mr Trump will seek to stand as Republican presidential nominee in 2024 was due any day. He had said last week he “very, very, very probably” would. This position could be under urgent re-evaluation in light of the performance of his candidates in the midterms.

One tactical consideration is getting in early to pre-empt other possible candidates, like Mr DeSantis.

A sign of Mr Trump’s waning powers is in the response to the elections from right-wing and Rupert Murdoch-owned media. Fox News has debated Mr Trump’s future, while the New York Post’s headlines have included “DeFuture” and “Trumpty Dumpty”.

It is too early to write off the mercurial Mr Trump, even as various legal cases against him bubble in the background. His appeal to disgruntled and conservative Americans has not gone away, especially in the face of those basic economic worries.

However, the midterm elections have made manifest the limits of his allure. Republicans should be soul-searching about the direction of their party.

That could well be a future without the detestable Mr Trump, described by the Wall Street Journal as the election’s “biggest loser”.