The worm turns

What a difference a debate makes - or two.

It is extraordinary that 50 years after United States presidential hopefuls John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon clashed in a televised debate seen as a decisive factor in Mr Kennedy's eventual victory, the British are only now discovering the potential impact of the medium, and its implications for government and the forces it can exert on the very shape of democracy.

New Zealanders are well-versed in televised leaders' debates during election campaigns, so in this part of the world, too, it seems almost unthinkable that the United Kingdom electorate is only now being exposed to the televisual phenomenon, and not a little ironic when communications in general have forged ubiquitously into the digital realm.

There have now been two such debates involving the leaders of the three main British parties involving Prime Minister and Labour Party leader Gordon Brown, Conservative Party leader David Cameron and leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg.

And, while there has been some disquiet about subsequent superficial predictions - and the dangers of facile "worm"-like performance indicators familiar to the New Zealand public - most pundits agree Mr Clegg emerged from the first debate as the outright winner, and from the second as at least holding his own in a three-way tie.

This has been mirrored in the opinion polls, which show the Conservatives to be leading at around 34%, the Lib Dems at about 29% and Labour at 27%.

Should support for Mr Clegg and his party, the perennial bridesmaids of a British electoral system long dominated by the Conservatives and Labour, hold up, British politics may be remade for good.

For both Mr Brown and Mr Clegg and their parties have committed to introducing some form of proportionality into the first-past-the-post election system, and should Mr Clegg come to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, that surely will be one of his first demands with whomsoever he signs a confidence and supply agreement.

Charming, relatively young, conventionally attired and presented, Mr Clegg has evidently struck a chord with an electorate deeply disaffected by the traditional major parties and the style of democracy they have come to represent.

This disaffection has been looming for some years, if not decades, but has until now been effectively downplayed by an FPP system which tends to mask trends in voting patterns.

For example, Labour was returned to office in 2005 with the support of barely one in five of the British electorate; and nearly a third of voters backed parties other than Labour or Conservative.

Although as unnerved as its major opposition at the sustained success of the Lib Dems, Labour has hitherto been less glum about it than the Conservatives, whose clear poll lead has dissipated mainly towards the newcomer.

But as Mr Clegg warned at the weekend, he would not prop up a Labour government that had collapsed to third place in the popular vote.

On the other hand, as much as it may be tactically expedient to deny this, his party is regarded as being temperamentally and politically closer to Labour than to the Tories.

The effect of the televised debates - watched by audiences of almost 10 million - has been to stimulate debate and encourage renewed interest in the May 6 poll among a jaded electorate.

David Cameron, for some time now regarded as a likely prime minister in waiting, while historically unsympathetic to the notion of reform of the electoral system has more lately refused to rule out change.

Thus, voter preference, while choosing the next government will almost certainly, de facto, be mandating some form of constitutional realignment.

Public estrangement from domestic politics in the United Kingdom in recent years has been acutely sharpened by outrage over the MPs' expenses scandal and an economic downturn which has seen Britain's economic stocks plummet.

As much as Mr Clegg may be an attractive candidate in his own right, he is also the primary beneficiary of a complex set of circumstances.

It might be said he is, in fact, doing history's bidding.

The overriding drama of this election lies in whether or not the mould of British politics is to be broken.

The confident small-screen performances of the Liberal Democrat leader have only served to heighten the suspense.

 

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