Earth Sciences New Zealand forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said some of the most striking June temperature anomalies in New Zealand at the moment were in the South Island — particularly Queenstown and Milford Sound, which were about 4°C above average, and Lauder and Mt Cook Airport which were heading towards 5°C above average.
Dunedin (Musselburgh) was just over 3°C and Invercargill Airport was just under 3°C above average.
‘‘Records in Invercargill go back to 1905, so that’s impressive.
‘‘When you’re talking about year-on-year record or near record warmth, I’d say that’s remarkable.
‘‘So far this month, they are the warmest averages on record for those places in June.
‘‘But this is not an indication of how we’re going to finish the month.’’
Mr Brandolino said there were three reasons the temperatures were above average at the moment.
‘‘Ocean temperatures around New Zealand are unusually warm.
‘‘So when we have unusually warm ocean temperatures, that does have an upward influence on air temperatures over land.
‘‘It takes the edge off any cold southerlies. And that’s another reason — we’ve had a lack of southerlies.
‘‘And No 3: warm Junes are consistent with our expectations of a warming climate.’’
He said if the country was hit by a couple of polar blasts before the end of June, the present record could stand.
‘‘So maybe you may not end up with a gold medal, but you could end up with bronze or silver.
‘‘If I were a betting man, I would say odds favour a ‘near record’ finish.’’
Today’s forecast appears to follow the warming trend with an unseasonably warm 17°C in Dunedin and Invercargill, and 16°C in Oamaru and Gore.
He said it was not just the southern regions that were experiencing above average temperatures at the moment.
The main centres further north were also feeling the heat, Auckland being about 2°C above normal, Wellington about 3°C above normal and Christchurch nearly 4°C above normal.
Virtually the entire country was experiencing an exceptionally warm start to winter and as of June 16 more than 150 weather stations across New Zealand were on track for their warmest June on record.
Tomorrow, an active front is expected to move northwards over the South Island, bringing strong northwesterlies to Southland and inland Otago, and an orange heavy rain warning for Fiordland, the Westland ranges, and the Otago and Canterbury headwaters.
Cooler southwesterlies should spread over the South Island behind that front.
The temperatures for the shortest day of the year — Sunday (June 21) — are cooler by comparison, but tomorrow’s rain should have cleared enough for much of the region to enjoy all eight hours and 39 minutes of daylight.
From next week, the days will start to get longer again.
As for the rest of winter 2026, Mr Brandolino said the second half of winter would favour colder temperatures as the effects of El Nino started to take shape.
‘‘We expect more cooler southwesterly winds when that happens.’’
