Last year’s home winner Charles Leclerc cannot be counted out, even with Ferrari’s qualifying woes, and nor can Mercedes, but McLaren have won a record 15 times in Monaco and the slow, twisty circuit should suit their car.
The question is whether Oscar Piastri will increase his 13-point lead around the principality’s metal-fenced streets, or if team-mate Lando Norris can whittle away the Australian’s advantage in the glamorous eighth round of the 24-race season.
Piastri was runner-up last year as Leclerc became the first Monegasque to win Monaco in the championship era, while Norris was fourth and has managed only one past podium appearance, a third place in 2021.
Monaco can spring surprises, and the fastest car does not always win on a track where overtaking has been nearly impossible.
A mandatory second stop has now been added to try to shake things up.
Verstappen expects the extra stop will spice things up.
"I guess it can go both ways; it can be quite straightforward, or it can go completely crazy because of safety cars coming into play or not making the right calls," he said.
"Normally, with one stop, once you have a good pitstop and everything is fine then you drive to the end and just stay focused and not hit the barrier.
"But maybe with a two-stop, it can create something different — people gambling, guessing when the right time is to box [pit]. So hopefully, it will spice it up a bit more."
Ferrari have had just one podium finish this season, Leclerc’s third in Saudi Arabia, and Imola highlighted the team’s lack of single-lap pace.
Mercedes also had a miserable time in Imola, but George Russell’s qualifying form could give him a shot at a podium.
His rookie team-mate Kimi Antonelli will be one of six drivers taking on the challenge of Monaco for the first time in a Formula One car, although all are fully familiar with the layout from junior series.
New Zealander Liam Lawson is still chasing his first points of the season with Racing Bulls and qualifying will again be crucial to his chances of achieving that.
Four former Monaco winners will be racing on Monday: Fernando Alonso (2006, 2007), Hamilton (2008, 2016, 2019), Max Verstappen (2021, 2023) and Leclerc (2024).
Verstappen’s wins were races he led from start to finish.
Leclerc has been on pole three times in the last four years — in 2021, 2022 and 2024. There was no race in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Piastri leads the drivers’ championship by 13 points from team-mate Norris. Verstappen is nine points behind Norris.
Leaders and champions McLaren are 132 points clear of Mercedes and 148 ahead of Red Bull.
Monaco Grand Prix
The statistics
Lap distance: 3.337km.
Total distance: 260.286km (78 laps)
2024 pole position: Charles Leclerc (Monaco), Ferrari, one minute 10.270 seconds
2024 winner: Leclerc
Race lap record: Lewis Hamilton (Britain), Mercedes, 1:12.909, 2021.
The track: It is the shortest and slowest track on the calendar. Only 34% of the lap is at full throttle. The 180-degree turn six hairpin is the slowest corner of the year, with cars taking it at 45kmh.
Time: 1am Monday NZT
