Election uncertainty played down

Chris Timms
Chris Timms
A change in government means uncertainty, which is unsettling for many.

However, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said despite signs the election result could go either way, there was no need to panic.

``Regardless of the outcome, the election is unlikely to derail the economy in a significant way.''

New Zealand was in a strong economic position. Growth was robust, unemployment was low, the dairy sector had improved substantially and many parts of the economy were doing well.

Financial markets would ultimately put more weight on those fundamentals than on political change in Wellington.

Also, the differences between the two major parties were not that significant.

``Despite what they'd have us believe, Labour and National are both relatively close to the centre these days.''

However, there would be some important financial implications if there was a change of government. Changes to policy would mean some sectors and companies would fare better than others.

At an economic level, a potential change of government added uncertainty to the New Zealand story generally, which was why a small dip in the New Zealand dollar was seen after the poll results were released.

If the polls remained close, or if there was a change on election night, further currency weakness should be expected - at least in the short term.

It already made sense to own companies with some international exposure, such as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Gentrack, Mainfreight, Tourism Holdings and Xero.

Unsustainably high house prices and the inequality it created were key issues for New Zealand and had been hot topics in the election campaign, he said.

Tax policy was one element of Labour's strategy to deal with the issue and it was likely a capital gains tax would be considered within the first term, if there was a change in government.

``This should probably worry property investors more than share investors, as they potentially have more to lose.''

In the past 20 years, New Zealand shares had delivered a return of 8.5% a year, although 71% of that had been from dividends rather than capital gains.

Importantly, the bulk of that return already attracted income tax at the investors' marginal tax rate, Mr Timms said.

As local share investors were already paying on more than two-thirds of the return, the impact of a capital gains tax could be more limited than people might think.

Conversely, property investors collecting relatively low rental yields, and deriving a much greater proportion of their return from capital gains, could face a higher tax impost than at present.

If a capital gains tax was on the cards, some of the shares and sectors paying higher dividends could benefit. Those companies included electricity companies, listed property vehicles and the likes of Vector.

A greater proportion of the returns from those were already taxed and they would have less to lose, compared with under the current regime, he said.

The retirement sector could face some uncertainty. Companies such as Summerset and Ryman were leveraged to further gains in house prices. Their non-taxpaying status could raise some eyebrows under a new government with a greater focus on tax fairness.

In the short term, domestic economic growth could be negatively affected. Businesses would naturally be more uncertain and there could be a lack of clarity around the tax regime as working groups played their part.

``This could weigh on some of the domestically focused stock, such as Freightways, Trade Me and Fletcher Building.''

A potential clampdown on immigration would also have an impact on some sectors, including those in many regional centres and those in the agricultural and horticultural sectors.

The potential for changes regarding the commercial use of water could also create some uncertainty for the farming sector, although it would probably be limited to regions where irrigation was relied on, such as Canterbury.

A Labour government would probably increase support to lower-income groups, including beneficiaries and students.

Those segments tended to spend a much greater proportion of their income than wealthier segments, which were more likely to save any increases in their income.

That could boost consumer spending slightly and provide support for the likes of Restaurant Brands, a company Craigs already viewed favourably, Mr Timms said.

Other retailers might see a similar lift in spending, although there were other barriers facing the sector, making Craigs reluctant to advocate adding any of those to the list.

``We should still remember neither major party is in a position to govern alone. That means coalitions, which will likely see some concessions inevitably being made.''

 

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