Venison prices are inching closer to the $10 a kg mark, last reached in 2001, but farming leaders say the industry today is vastly different from the one which collapsed soon after scaling those unsustainable heights.
Last week, prices were averaging $9.50 a kg, compared to $6.45 a kg a year earlier, and a combination of better promotion and lower deer numbers means the industry is better positioned than in 2001.
Deer Industry New Zealand chief executive Mark O'Connor said in an interview there were some similarities with 2001: Brazilian beef was currently shut out of Europe as South American beef was in 2001, and this reduced competing protein.
But the deer industry has also invested time and money in promotion in Europe and consumers there were shying away from game venison, in favour of farmed, due to quality control concerns.
Even though Brazil was lobbying hard to regain access for beef, Mr O'Connor said it was wrong to assume history would repeat itself.
The other difference with 2001 was that there was no "bow wave" of deer waiting to be killed when the price hit $10 a kg.
"That is not the situation now. We are short of deer."
In the six months to July 2001, food safety issues in Europe and the UK pushed the price of venison from just over $5 a kg to $10 a kg before it collapsed to below $5 a kg a year later, due to consumer resistance and cheap South American beef.
He said farmers today had control over the direction of the industry by choosing which meat company they supplied animals to, based on long-term considerations, not just the pursuit of an extra 10c or 20c a kg.
"We want to avoid a procurement-driven schedule because we know when it gets out of kilter with the market we are headed for trouble."
He urged farmers to look favourably on companies which were promoting and positioning New Zealand venison and were working with customers, rather than traders - "companies which are looking after venison as well as farmers and processors in New Zealand do."
The New Zealand deer herd has fallen from 1.6 million in June 2006 to an estimated 1.3 million today, with the kill expected to hit 620,000 this year.
Mr O'Connor said companies had told him they could easily handle 650,000, with some talking of 750,000 if the growth was managed.
It was unlikely the herd would expand in the next few years he said, but the farmers who remained were generally dedicated and had large scale operations.
Because supply was tight, the focus would remain on European markets, but Mr O'Connor said they were moving away from relying on the hotel and restaurant trade and more on retail.
"For us it is more about Europe and its effective positioning at retail and some support for the United States."