Investors appearing complacent

Chris Timms
Chris Timms
Global economic activity has stalled, numerous geopolitical risks are lingering and with many markets close to all time highs, investors appear to have become complacent.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms urged investors to apply some caution in coming months and consider taking profits in higher risk positions, adding to fixed interest where possible.

''For new investors, being patient could well pay off. When we do see some weakness creep in, this could represent an attractive buying opportunity.

''We wouldn't be at all surprised if `selling in May and go away' works this year, at least to some degree.''

May was the month when many business commentators debated the ''sell in May'' adage, he said. The saying referred to the seasonal impact seemingly affecting the returns in the period from May to October.

In the United States, in the past 50 years, the period from May to October had yielded an average return of just 0.9%, while the average return from November to April was 6.6%.

In the May investment overview, Craigs said markets were mixed during April. United Kingdom and US shares were up for the month while European and Australian shares lost some gains from earlier in the year.

The NZX50 produced a middle of the road performance, closing down 0.7%.

There were some big moves in the currency markets with the US dollar falling in the wake of weaker economic data.

The New Zealand dollar was up 1.9% against the US dollar but it fell by a similar magnitude against the Australian dollar, British pound and euro. Oil prices rebounded in April with Brent crude rising 19%.

The US reporting season for the first quarter was about halfway through. Of the 361 Standard and Poor's 500 companies to have reported so far, 261 had exceeded analysts' estimates at the earnings level, Mr Timms said.

''While this equates to a relatively healthy beat rate of 72%, we note only 52% of companies have reported revenues ahead of market expectations.

''This suggests top line growth continues to be hard to come by and that share buy backs and cost cutting measures are still contributing to reported earnings growth.''

 

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