Moa issued a market profit downgrade on Monday, forecasting a loss of between $5 million and $6 million for the end of the current financial year.
The downgrade was more than double that stated in the prospectus document at the time of the initial public offering and worse than the $4.5 million in a research note published on October 21.
Mr Timms said the miss was largely due to the poor performance in the New Zealand market and the disruption caused by the change of distribution model.
There was little new detail in the announcement, but he saw high levels of uncertainty and risks around Moa and expected little upside news in the coming 12 months.
''We see potential for further disappointments if beer volume sales are unable to improve. The balance of risks continue to be skewed to the down side.''
The key points from the Moa announcement included the 2014 financial year's volume forecast to be 136,000 nine-litre equivalents, 30% below the prospectus forecast of 195,000. New Zealand had been a major drag but the United States and other international markets were expected to meet original expectations. Australian volume had been slightly behind prospectus forecasts but would be offset by the ''rest of the world''.
The company noted lower volumes and a significant bias towards its value-driven ''original'' product would create a drag on margins for the current year.
''Moa has failed to make any meaningful presence in the local market with its `estate' or `reserve' ranges under the new strategy; driving meaningful volume away from its original product may be difficult.
''Additionally, manufacturing costs for the estate and reserve ranges will also be higher until volumes improve meaningfully,'' Mr Timms said.
Given the number of uncertainties, including issues attaining resource consent and modest volumes, a decision on the brewery expansion had been delayed.
Mr Timms remained concerned a greater-than-expected loss for the year and uncertainty around volume outlook might hinder the expansion plans.
With about $10 million in cash at March 31, and an expected $5 million to $6 million loss for 2014, the $6.1 million earmarked for the brewery expansion was unlikely to be available.
With the brewery expansion unlikely to occur, the company's cash balance at the end of the current financial year would be around $4 million to $5 million.
On the upside, Moa was undertaking a strategic review which would encompass all parts of the current business model, including manufacturing options, pricing and the suite of available products, he said.
