New Zealand's monthly exports for the first time went beyond $5 billion in March, aided by increased meat, oil and machinery exports.
Exports for March were booked at $5.07 billion and imports at $4.15 billion, leaving a trade merchandise balance of $920 million - the fifth consecutive surplus, according to Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) data released yesterday.
While the economy is making gains and aspects of dairying book new records, the New Zealand dollar's strength and the Reserve Bank's interest-rate hikes are coming into sharper focus for analysts and exporters.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said while dairy products were down 9% by volume, there were offsetting increases in exports of meat, oil and machinery.
''This is likely to mark the peak month for New Zealand's exports, at least for now,'' he said.
GlobalDairyTrade auction prices began to ''fall sharply'' in March, but those prices were for contracts to be delivered in April and beyond, meaning their impact would start to show up in trade figures over coming months, Mr Gordon said.
For the quarter to March, exports rose 2.1% to $13.6 billion, led by meat and offal exports, while imports were up 1.5% to $12.5 billion, making a trade surplus of $1.1 billion, or 8% of exports.
In a separate, ASB quarterly forecast yesterday, economist Nick Tuffley said the economy remained ''comfortably on course'' to achieve 3.5% growth during the next year, with construction and dairying remaining the key drivers, but with the economic recovery in general ''broadening beyond just those areas''.
Net migration was boosting population growth and increasing housing demand, Mr Tuffley said.
However, Mr Tuffley cautioned that dairy prices had ''fallen quite rapidly'' in recent months, down 20% in the global auctions.
''Some softening was to be expected from 2013's lofty levels, but the pressure has been greater and sooner than anticipated.''
He said the New Zealand dollar ''remained stubbornly high and is maintaining pressure on exporters''.
Last week, the Reserve Bank hiked the official cash rate a second time, to 3%.
''And with the Reserve Bank having now kicked off its hiking cycle, the question of how many hikes will be necessary is of paramount importance,'' Mr Tuffley said.
ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said the SNZ trade merchandise data showed a recovery in meat export volumes was ''firmly entrenched''. March quarter export volumes were about 5% higher than a year ago. A recovering UK market helped lamb export volumes, the US beef market remained tight, allowing access for exporters such as New Zealand, and the Chinese market was a growing outlet for both sheep and beef exports.
''It may also simply be that production has held up better than expected following the 2013 drought,'' he said.
''The March surplus is the fifth in a row. We expect this run of surpluses in seasonally adjusted terms to continue over 2014 ... the strong end to the dairy production season will allow dairy export volumes to pick up some of the slack [of price declines],'' he said.
