Markets await US decision on interest rates

Chris Timms.
Chris Timms.
The United States Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Thursday morning would be the global highlight for markets, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said yesterday.

The outcome of the Fed meeting would be released at 6am Thursday, New Zealand time, leaving time for local markets to react.

Along with the statement, the Fed would also release an updated set of economic projections, as well as holding a press conference, he said.

Despite some soft economic data, the Fed was still widely expected to increase its funds rate by 0.25%, taking it to a range of 1% to 1.25%.

However, with many market participants questioning whether the Fed would be able to continue the hiking cycle at the pace it previously expected, the focus would be on the forecasts and commentary, Mr Timms said.

The last time the Fed updated its forecast was three months ago at the March meeting.

Businesses would be watching for any comments from Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen about when the central bank would start reducing the size of its balance sheet — something that was likely to start later this year.

The other things to watch this week in the US would be retail sales and Consumer Price Index inflation, both  out a few hours before the Fed decision, he said.

In New Zealand, the key events would be the quarterly balance of payments tomorrow  and GDP on Thursday.

The Real Estate Institute figures were due out today and Mr Timms expected they would be of strong interest, given the softness in prices seen in Auckland and other hotspots.

The Reserve Bank, and others, would be hoping prices continued to ease in many of the overheated regions, reducing some of the longer-term risk to the economy.

In Australia, the key economic releases to watch were the National Australia Bank survey, out today at 1.30pm, and the May labour force data, due on Thursday.

For the NAB survey, the markets would watch for evidence of an improving trend in business conditions, given the mixed messages recently heard about the economy, he said.

Last month, business conditions strengthened from already elevated levels. The headline NAB index rise to 14 points was well above the long-run average of five and the highest level since 2008.The business confidence index was also strong, rising to the highest level since 2010 at 13. Labour force statistics were also better than expected in April, when 37,000 jobs were created, well above forecasts for a gain of just 5000, Mr Timms said.

Unemployment in Australia fell to 5.7% from 5.9% a month earlier.

Comments

Interest rates will rise in the future and there will be many that will have financial problems on a large scale.