Net debt situation concerns economists

The shape of the economy and borrowing has economists concerned over the net debt situation building up with government borrowing rising by an extra $6billion.

ASB senior rural economist Nathan Penny said overall Budget 2019 showed a healthy set of Government books and that, notably, it announced additional spending, investment and borrowing compared to the Half-Year Update.

"However, we're considerably less optimistic than the Treasury on the growth and tax revenue outlook.

"On this basis, we suspect that the Government may be at risk of missing its net debt target,'' he said in a statement.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said if tax revenue faltered, there could be some risks in delivering the proposed Budget surpluses while hoping to reduce debt.

The Government will borrow an extra $6billion over the next five years to cover a shortfall in its cash flows to meet a $41.1billion capital spending programme.

The New Zealand Debt Management Office (DMO) will issue $8billion in the year ending June 30, rising to $10billion of government bonds in the 2020 and 2021 financial years, falling to $8billion and $6billion in the following years, BusinessDesk reported.

That is an extra $5billion of net bond issuance over the five-year horizon, and the DMO said it would issue an extra $1billion of Treasury bills in 2020.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the Government had substantially increased its planned operational spending, against a backdrop of largely unchanged GDP and revenue forecasts.

"We see down-side risks to the Treasury's growth forecasts, which were unfazed by the weaker-than-expected starting point for the economy.

"This could have implications for the affordability of the Government's spending plans in later years,'' he said.

The financial details of the Budget amounted to a substantial increase in operational spending over the next few years.

"The net result is close to what we expected: smaller projected surpluses and more debt issuance over the coming years, while still squeaking within the Government's self-imposed fiscal responsibility rules,'' Mr Stephens said.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson last week signalled plans for a more flexible debt target range of 15% to 25% of GDP from the 2022 financial year.

The Government has faced calls to take on more debt to fund infrastructure spending at a time when it is able to sell bonds at sub-2% yields.

The self-imposed budget responsibility rules target net debt of 20%, a level the Treasury predicts the Government will track over the next four years.

The DMO will issue $42billion of gross bonds over the horizon, with $37billion of maturities and repurchases, leaving it with $79.2billion on issue in 2023.

The $3billion of Treasury bills will rise to $4billion in the 2021 year, before falling back to $3billion in 2023.

The DMO expects to issue $500 million of inflation-indexed bonds in the 2020 financial year. - Additional reporting: BusinessDesk