OCR held; focus now offshore

The Reserve Bank held the official cash rate at 2.5% as expected but the main focus for markets will be what action the United States Federal Reserve took early this morning (about 3am) to help stimulate the US economy.

The German Constitutional Court ruled yesterday a permanent bail-out fund for the euro zone was compatible with the German constitution.

That was largely seen as the last hurdle in setting up the European Stability Mechanism to support the region's debt-hit countries.

The next key event is tonight's meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which is expected to produce a favourable decision on a third round of quantitative easing.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said global markets will be affected by whatever decision the market committee makes.

"There is an expectation there will be more easing, which will be good for the sharemarkets. The US markets are flat, awaiting the decision, after a jump following the German court ruling."

If there was no easing, markets would pull back off their highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Index would set the tone around the world today, Mr Timms said.

The European Central Bank held its main interest rate at 0.75% yesterday and the Bank of England kept its rate unchanged at the record low of 0.5%.

Yesterday's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) was the last to be delivered by Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard, who leaves the central bank soon to be replaced by Graeme Wheeler.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said Mr Wheeler would probably be cautious to start with but might eventually express quite different views about monetary policy.

"The forward guidance given in today's statement has a fairly limited shelf life. Dr Bollard was quite aware of this and probably crafted the MPS with a view to avoiding committing the next governor to any particular course of action.

"We will reserve any judgement on changing our monetary policy forecast until we have a better understanding of Graeme Wheeler's style," Mr Stephens said.

Market reaction was surprisingly muted.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the Reserve Bank would have been irritated by the New Zealand dollar having again risen to levels that prevailed at the March MPS.

"But there was no attempt to jawbone the currency lower. Rather, the Reserve Bank seems resigned to the fact that it is beyond their control and the best they can do is take it into account in their forecasts and policy setting."


Alan Bollard's last hurrah
• OCR remains at 2.5%
• Next move seen in 2014
• Market reaction muted
• Dollar beyond control


 

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