ASB economist Daniel Smith said despite his expectations of ''decent'' employment growth, he was forecasting only a slight drop in the unemployment rate.
At the end of June, the number of people in work nationally was only 0.7% higher, following a large drop in employment over the second half of 2012 which took the unemployment rate up to 7.3%.
''Since then, we have had a strong rebound in employment over the first half of 2013. While New Zealand labour market data is notoriously volatile, we can now hope for a return of a more steady pattern or employment growth.''
Statistics New Zealand will release its wage and salary data on Wednesday, along with the Household Labour Force Survey results. All of the wage and employment data is now released on one day.
Mr Smith said a significant proportion of the strength in employment growth was likely to come in Canterbury, where employment fell by a surprising 1.6% in June.
There was scope for a rebound in the September numbers. Beyond Canterbury, the employment growth was expected to be more modest.
On top of the cyclical effect, New Zealand's migration flows were also likely to push up the participation rate over the next year or so.
In the past year, there had been a sharp drop in the number of New Zealanders leaving for Australia and, recently, there had been a sharp increase in the number of Kiwis moving back from Australia to New Zealand.
Both of those categories, particularly the latter, who were usually ineligible for unemployment benefits in Australia, were likely to be ''active'' in the labour market, he said.
''As job opportunities in Australia have diminished, a release valve within the New Zealand market has been turned off. As a result, we should see a more active and larger working age population. The result is likely to be a very gradual decline in the unemployment rate, despite decent employment growth.''
Wage growth had slowed in the past 12 months, mainly because of a low inflation rate, which was used as a benchmark in wage negotiations, Mr Smith said.
The number of firms reporting difficulty finding suitable workers had also been rising, which kept workers' wage-setting power low.
Wage growth was expected to remain low but one area to watch closely was labour costs in the construction sector. Construction labour costs in Canterbury had been rising faster than the rest of the country but had not yet accelerated to a problematic level, he said.
September expectations
• Unemployment rate to fall slightly, to 6.3%
• Higher participation rate because of returning Kiwis
• More companies plan to add staff
• Wage growth to be muted
