UK election may affect markets

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has an even chance to become British prime minister later this week. Photo: Reuters.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has an even chance to become British prime minister later this week. Photo: Reuters.
Three global events this week have the potential to influence markets around the world, including New Zealand to a lesser extent.

The United Kingdom election is on the minds of many.

It takes place on Thursday in the UK.

Polls close at 10pm, which is about 9am on Friday in New Zealand.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said exit polls were likely to come immediately after the closure, giving the first indications of how the UK had voted.

Assuming the result was relatively clear, the outcome should be known sometime on Friday afternoon, when the local market was still trading.

The latest polls had Theresa May's Conservatives with a much slimmer lead over Labour than when the snap election was called in April.

A predictive poll published yesterday (Tuesday) showed the Conservatives on 41%, down 2%, and Labour on 40%, up 3%.

''The Conservatives will have a rather narrow majority of 17 seats in the 650-seat Parliament - and the point of this snap election is for them to increase that majority,'' Mr Timms said.

If the Conservatives could win convincingly, and achieve an increased majority, the pound would rise on the back of greater certainty and stronger leadership.

If the election result left the status quo outcome - a similar narrow majority - that would be considered a defeat for Mrs May and the currency would go lower.

The least likely scenario was a surprise vote for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party, he said.

''If this occurred, expect a negative kneejerk reaction from markets, with the pound down more sharply and equities sold off. Markets hate uncertainty and Mr Corbyn is an unknown quantity.''

Asked if the UK election would affect New Zealand markets, Mr Timms said ''contagion'' was possible but there should be little flow-on for New Zealand.

New Zealand's market was performing well, as was the country as a whole.

''England is no longer the mother country and the implications for us are not as significant as they would have been in the past.''

Also this week, the European Central Bank would meet on Thursday in Estonia.

Given the improving economic outlook in the region, as well as reduced political uncertainty, markets would focus on whether the ECB intended to withdraw its stimulus at any point soon, Mr Timms said.

''If we do get some 'taper talk' the euro could see further gains, interest rates in the region will likely rise and equities could be weaker.''

The meeting would be the first since the French election and recent press reports suggested the central bank was preparing to soften its easing stance, he said.

''Having said that, euro zone inflation has been disappointing of late.''

Last week, annual headline inflation for April was reported at 1.4%, below expectations for 1.5% and down from 2% in March.

It was the slowest pace of growth seen since December.

The final event which could influence global markets was former FBI director James Comey preparing to testify to the United States Senate Intelligence Committee, Mr Timms said.

Like the other two events, Mr Comey was set to testify on Thursday, US time, making the end of the week ''very interesting''.

Markets would watch his testimony closely and if there were any suggestions President Donald Trump attempted to shut down Mr Comey's investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, expect some volatility, he said.

In New Zealand, the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction results were expected early this morning.

The last headline index rose 3.2% at the last auction.

The latest Real Estate Institute data was likely to be released at some point this week.

The REINZ data would be of strong interest given the weakness seen in Auckland and other hotspots in recent months.

The Reserve Bank, and others, would be hoping prices continue to ease in many of the overheated regions, reducing some of the longer-term risks to the economy, Mr Timms said.

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