Analysis
By-elections can be a strong barometer of electorate mood.
The outcome of a race might send a statement to an existing administration about how it is tracking. Or it may reflect the power of name recognition. Or a campaign could simply reinforce the issues of the day.
Perhaps all of that is in play as voting gets under way in the Dunedin City Council by-election to replace Cr Jules Radich, who died in January.
Have Dunedin residents had enough of double-digit rates increases and rising debt? Do they believe austerity should be resisted? Would they like a moderate voice in the mix, or somebody to shake things up? Who, among the candidates, might be the best addition to the council table?
Fourteen candidates are standing in the Dunedin by-election, vying for one councillor position.
A minority of them lean left. In a first-past-the-post scenario with this field, candidates leaning right would be at a disadvantage, because they would lose a lot of votes to each other.
However, the single transferable vote (STV) electoral system is again being used, arguably providing a level playing field for candidates — their chances may not be harmed by like-minded candidates in the race.
It all depends, of course, on how people vote. Will they consider more than one person is worth ranking?
The by-election is like a mayoral election in the sense that one position is available.
A candidate needs to attract enough support to cross the threshold for election. If they do not get there in the first round, the least-favoured candidate drops out and their votes are reallocated to those that remain in the race. The elimination process continues until one person meets the threshold.
When the Otago Daily Times last ran an explanatory piece about STV, University of Otago professors Janine Hayward and Andrew Geddis were approached for input.
Prof Hayward described the winner as the candidate who was first to reach the required 50% support from the votes that remained in play.
Prof Geddis: "The winning candidate will always be the one supported by a majority of remaining votes, after discounting all the other candidates that cannot achieve this status."
The biggest uncertainty in a by-election is who will vote and who will not. And what difference might that make to who wins?
