Case numbers have escalated rapidly in the South during the past week and that has had a knock-on effect on hospitalisations, which reached a record 37 people in the South yesterday.
Worse might be yet to come, as University of Canterbury Covid modeller Prof Michael Plank said any proliferation of cases connected to the rugby were probably not yet showing Covid symptoms.
"Yesterday would probably be a bit soon. It [946] would be Monday or weekend results," he said.
"It would be more likely to show up towards the end of this week."
The game itself, being in a large stadium, might not necessarily create a surge in cases itself, but people gathering before and afterwards in tightly packed entertainment venues posed the main danger, Prof Plank said.
"The stadium is pretty well ventilated, it’s not the highest-risk environment for transmission, that’s the bars afterwards, and that could potentially cause a bump in the numbers."
Health New Zealand Southern interim district director Hamish Brown said Dunedin Hospital was at capacity last night.
"The Covid ward is full, including patients in the sixth floor isolation rooms, and Queen Mary and ICU also have Covid cases."
The Covid ward at Dunedin Hospital, ward 7a, is designed to care for 24 patients, although it can fit one or two more at a pinch.
It is understood that, until now, the hospital has not had to use its overflow ward.
"Covid-19 cases are increasing in Southern as they are all over the country," Mr Brown said.
"The new variants of Covid are highly infectious and even people who have had Covid before and vaccinated are at risk of getting infected or reinfected.
"This is putting pressure on primary care and on our hospital services".
Clinicians are understood to be dreading any potential rugby-driven increase in Covid cases as both main southern hospitals are running at or over capacity and significant staff absence due to illness is not abating.
Twice in recent days all but emergency and cancer surgery has had to be deferred, and on Monday HNZ Southern called for people to stay away from emergency departments unless care was urgently needed. As well as Covid, there had been a significant rise in influenza and other respiratory illnesses in the region in recent days, Mr Brown said.
"There is huge pressure on our workforce to be able to respond this demand and our operational teams are working very hard to ensure there is adequate resources," Mr Brown said.
"Please get your Covid booster if you are eligible — being vaccinated will help protect you against severe disease and needing to be hospitalised.
"Please wear a mask if indoors with other people: this will help us protect each other from not only Covid, but other winter viruses, including influenza."
Prof Plank said a second wave of hospitalisations across the country had been expected, as the virus finally breached the defences of aged residential care facilities and infected highly vulnerable older people.
"The people who are getting infected now are, on average, much older than the people who were getting infected in the first wave.
"It is clear that we are in a second wave now and hospitalisations are rising sharply."
Nationally, the rolling seven-day average for hospitalisations is 613: a week ago it was 436.
The Ministry of Health reported 11,548 new community cases yesterday and a further 19 deaths of people who had Covid-19, one of which was in the South.
