University of Otago Aspire Aotearoa co-director Prof Janet Hoek said the sudden repeal of the law showed how quickly progress could be undone when politicians ignored evidence, public opinion and expert advice.
She and fellow Otago researchers released a new Public Health Communication Centre briefing yesterday, showing an analysis of arguments made by the government during the rushed February 2024 repeal of the smokefree "endgame" laws.
The laws would have reduced nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels, drastically cut the number of tobacco retailers, and created a smokefree generation by ending cigarette sales to people born after 2009.
Prof Hoek said the repeal went against the best available evidence, against the advice of the Ministry of Health and against what most New Zealanders wanted.
Researchers recently reviewed the verbatim Hansard record which showed what politicians said in the House of Representatives.
They compared the contents with the Policy Dystopia Model, a framework that outlines argumentative strategies that tobacco companies use to oppose policies that restrict their marketing.
"Many government arguments lacked evidence and closely mirrored the tobacco industry’s playbook, such as overstating fears about illegal trade and shifting blame to individuals instead of holding tobacco companies accountable," she said.
Hansard recordings from the time showed a New Zealand First Party MP saying, "Our smoking rates have fallen drastically in recent times ... If those trends continue without any additional measures, [we] will hit the headline smoke-free goal".
Another showed a National Party MP saying, "We're going to be a lot less punitive ... provide [people] with more choice to help them quit".
And an Act Party MP said, "... we [would] have a large illegal market putting profits in the pockets of gangs ..." if the smokefree laws continued.
Opposition MPs strongly opposed the repeal, raising concerns about the lack of consultation, breaches of the Treaty of Waitangi and the likely impact on health inequities.
Prof Hoek said the researchers’ analysis, published yesterday in BMJ journal Tobacco Control, provided evidence from the NZ Health Survey which showed the Smokefree 2025 goal was very unlikely to be achieved, particularly for Māori.
The report said returning to individually-focused measures, such as smoking cessation support, shifted responsibility for smoking from tobacco companies to people who smoked.
NZ data also showed the illicit tobacco trade would not put more money in the hands of gangs. It had remained stable over time, and recent analysis suggested it may have decreased.
Whether deliberate or not, coalition MPs’ use of arguments made by tobacco companies suggested an urgent need to restrict tobacco companies’ ability to influence policy, the briefing said.
"Additional measures, include introducing lobbying regulations, such as a code of conduct to govern lobbying, a register that records all lobbying activity undertaken by organisations, and legislation that would define how policy makers and officials maintain high compliance with their obligations under the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control."
The briefing said these policies would increase transparency and should be an urgent priority here, and internationally.
While limiting lobbying and making interactions more transparent was crucial, even these steps might not capture all the interactions between politicians, their staff, tobacco companies or the groups they support.
"Researchers must thus continue to question tobacco companies’ arguments, and the logic and evidence used to support these, particularly given court findings that tobacco companies deceived the public for many decades."
Prof Hoek said their analysis offered a cautionary tale for other countries considering smokefree measures.
