South Otago’s primary and secondary rolls have also reached their lowest point since 1998, when Otago Daily Times roll records began, but principals there are less confident of a turn-around.
March roll return statistics, released by the Ministry of Education yesterday, show Dunedin’s secondary school rolls have dropped 11% to 6773 pupils this year.
Otago Secondary Principals Association secretary Gordon Wilson was not surprised by the significant decline.
"That is what was predicted."
He said there had been a downturn in the number of births in Dunedin during the past two decades, which meant rolls at Dunedin primary and secondary schools had been declining.
But birth rates had since increased and primary school rolls had grown 15% during the past decade, meaning Dunedin’s overall roll had remained steady in recent years.
"If you see the increase in primary, that will flow on to secondary. So it’s not a surprise and we’re not concerned about the future of secondary rolls.
"The trend for secondary seems to be upwards."
While the outlook was positive, Mr Wilson said the declining rolls had had a significant impact on how schools operated, especially in the city’s secondary schools.
"It certainly has had an impact because there have been staff reductions in schools, based on the roll reductions.
"But that will start to turn the other way now, as school rolls start to increase."
There are already signs Dunedin’s secondary rolls are climbing.
Many of the city’s secondary principals have reported increases in pupil numbers since the start of the year, most notably Kaikorai Valley College, which has filed an urgent request to the Ministry of Education for extra staff to cope with an unexpected surge in pupils.
The school has enrolled 35 pupils since the start of this year, 25 pupils over and above the guaranteed staffing it was given by the ministry at the start of the year.
The situation is not so rosy in South Otago, because primary and secondary rolls have also dropped 11%, to 2261 pupils, during the past decade.South Otago Principals’ Association president Pauline Simpson believed the rolls had now dropped to a new plateau following years of population decline in the area.
"It is what it is. If you look at the census, there’s been a period of little to no population growth in this area, and that’s reflecting in our schools."
Although some school rolls were dropping to as low as 12, there was no concern schools might be closed.
They would remain "viable" because they were in such remote areas, she said.
Despite the decline in pupil numbers, Otago’s overall roll has increased 4.5%, to its highest point (31,420 pupils)in the past decade.
The increase has been driven by a remarkable 60% rise in Queenstown Lakes district rolls and a 16% rise in Central Otago rolls since 2008.
Also helping were Taieri, North and East Otago, and West Otago school rolls, which have remained relatively steady over the past decade.
