Ardern made the comments after being keynote speaker at the country's annual hui on countering terrorism and violent extremism.
He Whenua Taurikura Hui 2022 got under way in Auckland this morning. Members of the Māori, Pasifika, Jewish, Muslim, rainbow and many more communities gathered at the Cordis Hotel for the two-day event.
Earlier today, the widow of the final victim in 2019's terrorist attack said things have not improved for New Zealand Muslims.
Hamimah Ahmat was recently exercising in Christchurch when a passing motorist screamed at her to go back to her country.
"That shook me, I just had to sit down and let myself calm down."
Ardern said it was "very clear" it wasn't enough to just "pick up" how other countries responded to threats of terrorism or violence.
"[We need to] make sure our response is very much a New Zealand response."
Ardern said New Zealand was a country that didn't believe in mass surveillance and Kiwis protected and deeply guarded their privacy and freedom.
It was important to have a response that identified and acknowledged that potential radicalisation was often "very individualised" and it was important to look at the signs an individual may be showing rather than just focusing on ideology.
Having a range of respondees and including community groups would help identify when radicalisation and potential violent extremism may occur.
Ardern said it was important not to be afraid to talk about possible risks to the county's national security so "we can prepare for them".
"Over the past five years, New Zealand has gone through a lot. We've experienced all of the significant issues that are already on our list of national security risks so we understand them because we've been through them.
"I think we are very well-placed to have open conversations around what those risks are and how we can all better prepare for them."
The Prime Minister said it was also clear that New Zealanders had concerns about misinformation and disinformation. Most were "resilient" to it but it could have "devastating effects".
She said social media sites such as Twitter had a "huge responsibility" and misuse could do "serious harm".
Ardern said she hoped the platform's new owner Elon Musk would stick to transparency - as he had claimed was a focus for him - but it was fair to say "we are in a bit of unknown territory at this point".
Andrew Little is the lead minister of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Terrorist Attack on the Christchurch Mosques. He said while agencies could not monitor the entire internet, he was confident they were monitoring all forms of extremism.
Briefing document first of its kind
A briefing document, titled the National Security Long-term Insights Briefing, was discussed at the hui.
It warns the country’s increasingly divided and ageing population could become further vulnerable to extremist ideologies, online attacks from malicious overseas actors and the negative impacts of war and climate change - if efforts to educate Kiwis and shore up New Zealand’s defences are not furthered.
It also includes what’s considered a surprising finding that New Zealanders feel particularly at risk of a cyber-attack - something the briefing acknowledges the Government can’t adequately protect its citizens from.
The briefing - the first of its kind - was produced by nine Government agencies and surveyed 1000 people to test the mood of the nation concerning the perceived risk of various threats to national security.
“The release of this briefing is an opportunity to talk openly about the most significant threats New Zealanders are concerned about for the next decade as well as the work we are doing to combat or prepare for those risks,” Ardern said yesterday.
Respondents were asked how real they felt the threat was of 16 different incident-types occurring in New Zealand in the 12 months, or the next 10 years.
Predictably, respondents considered the risk of a natural disaster was highest - 87 per cent believed a natural disaster would hit New Zealand in the next 12 months, and 91 per cent believed it would happen in the next 10 years.
It was significantly higher than the level of concern felt in other countries, 69 per cent on average.
“It is not surprising that New Zealanders feel concerned about natural disasters occurring, given our vulnerability to events like earthquakes, floods, droughts and volcanic activity,” the briefing said.
It did acknowledge the surprise at the level of threat New Zealanders felt the hacking of information systems presented, registering as third-highest behind misinformation (including disinformation).
“What is particularly interesting in the context of this briefing is the level of concern about threats caused by people or countries wishing to do us harm (often referred to as “malicious actors”), such as hacking (attacks by cyber criminals and country-backed malicious actors who steal, expose, alter, disable or destroy information through unauthorised access to computer systems), or organised crime (illegal activity across national borders).’
Eighty-one per cent of respondents felt the risk was high in the coming 12 months, 77 per cent in the next 10 years - compared to 75 per cent in other countries.
Looking to the next 10-15 years, the authors identified four global trends that would influence the most significant risks to national security:
- Increasing competition between countries and the “continued deterioration” of the rules-based international order
- Technological change
- Climate change
- The ongoing effects of Covid-19 and future pandemics
Considering those trends, the briefing noted how New Zealand’s population in 15 years’ time would be older, more diverse and more urban, meaning a rethink of how security threats were addressed was required.
“We believe we need to respond to this development by changing the way we engage with New Zealanders to encourage more inclusive and representative participation.”
The briefing contained three hypothetical outcomes that predicted how risks posed to national security could evolve.
Under a scenario dubbed “continued decline”, authors described an increasing chance of war as the “rise of nationalism pervades the international landscape” and competition for resources increased the chance of direct conflict.
“A deteriorating global order means transnational organised crime thrives, including online, and some states are more brazen in their willingness to interfere and disrupt our way of life – including through cyber-attacks and espionage,” it said.
The authors highlighted New Zealand’s older population would be more vulnerable to extremism and false information.
“There is little shared public understanding of the challenges we face in New Zealand, and in the context of an ageing population, cycles of inequality and automation in the workforce, some will be particularly susceptible to extremist ideologies spread online and shaped by mis[information] and disinformation.”
Under “dramatic decline”, the authors posed a scenario where conflict in Europe continued, particularly in Ukraine, as other countries joined the war with an “ever-present threat” that nuclear weapons could be used.
The scenario also included Indo-Pacific conflict, citing tensions between China and Taiwan, and accelerating climate events which led to countries directly competing for resources while in New Zealand, threats to national security increased.
“A lack of resourcing, information sharing and the spread of sophisticated technology-enabled mis[information] and disinformation makes it difficult for people to tell fiction from fact.
“New Zealand is more polarised than ever, trust in the institutions of state is diminished, threatening the foundations of our liberal democracy.”
Researchers did include a third “optimistic and improving” option, in which countries had a “strong impetus” to meet global challenges on climate change and national security threats.
“Greater transparency, open and accessible information-sharing, engagement and partnership between government and the public increases trust, confidence, and social licence to respond to national security challenges.”
Researchers profiled six individual national security risks facing New Zealand:
- Disinformation
- Hacking and cyber-attacks
- Transnational organised crime
- Foreign interference and espionage
- Terrorism and violent extremism
- Pacific resilience challenges
Of particular concern was disinformation, the false or modified information knowingly and deliberately shared to cause harm, leading to “radicalisation and violence” in some cases.
The briefing highlighted the elevated risk posed by disinformation and how it could take the form of well-resourced, sophisticated campaigns to push “false or deceptive information”.
A recent New Zealand example was cited - after December last year, Microsoft reported Kiwis were subjected to a spike in exposure to Russian disinformation, much of which related to Covid-19.
“This spike preceded an increase in protests against Covid-19 measures and other issues in New Zealand.”
An increase in the prevalence and sophistication of disinformation was expected, alongside the potential for countries to purposely encourage division in New Zealand. New technology, like deepfakes, could undermine trust in information.
The briefing called for greater efforts to detect disinformation campaigns and calling out those responsible.
On cyber attacks, the report referenced four high-profile cyber attacks on the New Zealand stock exchange, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Waikato District Health Board and a $30 million hack on a Christchurch-based cryptocurrency exchange.
Over 2020/2021, New Zealand’s Government Communications Security Bureau recorded 404 attacks against “nationally significant organisations”, an increase of 15 per cent from the previous year. It was estimated GCSB defences against attacks had prevented almost $200m of harm.
- RNZ and NZ Herald
