Concerns possible new wave could be more infectious

Southern health administrators are closely watching the possible arrival of a new wave of Covid-19 as daily cases continue to climb in Otago and Southland.

Nationally the rolling average of new daily community cases has risen by 2000 in the past fortnight, and in the South case numbers have also increased steadily in the past week.

Yesterday there were 582 new cases of the pandemic disease reported in Otago and Southland.

Monday is usually a day when lower case numbers are announced, a reflection of fewer people registering test results over the weekend.

However, last Monday 434 new cases were reported, and yesterday’s 582 cases was not far off the 600-plus cases which were reported almost every weekday last week.

Last week active cases in Dunedin rose by 393, and active cases in southern rose from 2947 to 3412.

University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker and University of Canterbury Covid modeller Michael Plank both agree that a new Covid wave is under way in New Zealand, and that it is most likely a new, more infectious variant of the Omicron strain of Covid-19.

A Health New Zealand Southern spokeswoman said that public health clinicians were closely monitoring Covid-19 case numbers, and that the organisation was equally concerned about high influenza case numbers.

"We continue to work closely with primary care and other health professionals around the district to ensure that they are coping as best as possible and that we are ready to increase our response capability when and if the need arises.

"This includes working with our wider regional groups and the Ministry of Health."

A combination of staff shortages, winter illnesses and Covid-19 has already caused major disruption in southern hospitals: both Dunedin and Southland Hospitals have had to close wards, and a week ago all but emergency and cancer surgery was deferred for a day at Dunedin Hospital.

Yesterday 27 people who had Covid-19 were in southern hospitals. Nationally there were 6498 new cases and eight further deaths. None of those were in the South, which recorded 11 deaths of people who had Covid-19 over the weekend.

Modelling for the new wave of Covid-19 suggests that the South could once more experience case numbers such as were recorded in March, of more than 1000.

Last week the government maintained the national Covid-19 alert level at orange, but introduced a range of new public health measures including free masks for some school pupils.

--  mike.houlahan@odt.co.nz