Labour, Ardern take hit in new polls

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the largest shipments will arrive in the latter half of July....
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo: RNZ
Labour has taken a shellacking in the two new polls as the ongoing lockdown in Auckland starts to bite.

A leaked copy of Talbot Mills Research poll (formerly UMR) shows Labour has dropped by five points to 41 percent support in the last month – its lowest result since January 2020, before Covid-19 hit New Zealand.

The latest Taxpayers' Union Curia poll out today showed Labour had crashed six points to 39 percent - while National was up four points to 26 percent.

In both polls, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has also taken a hit.

In Talbot Mills, Ardern remains well ahead of anyone else as preferred prime minister on 47 percent. That is back to her pre-Covid levels of support, down from a high of 65 percent in the first lockdowns in 2020.

It is down from 51 percent in last month's poll.

The Talbot Mills poll showed a significant drop in the support for the Government's handling of Covid-19 over the last month as three months of lockdown in Auckland started to bite.

Those who rated the Government's handling as good had dropped from 60 percent in October to 46 percent, while those who rated it as poor had risen from 16 percent to 26 percent.

The Government has been wrestling with containing the outbreak in Auckland and trying to get vaccination levels high enough to ease restrictions more, but has copped criticism for a lack of certainty on when and how it will re-open, and from those opposed to vaccination mandates and lockdown restrictions.

There was also a large increase in those who believe the worst is yet to come in the pandemic – 75 percent now think that the worst is still is come.

Despite the hit to Labour, National has made only incremental gains – going up two points from 22 to 24 percent, while Act New Zealand has risen yet again, up one point to 17 percent – breaking its previous record in the poll.

In the Taxpayer's Union Curia poll, Jacinda Ardern crashed 13 points as preferred prime minister, down to 34 percent. She's still well ahead of National Party leader Judith Collins, who is up one point to six.

Collins is behind Act leader David Seymour, who has fallen two points to 10.5 percent.

In the Talbot Mills Research poll, Seymour is well above Collins as preferred prime minister – Seymour is on 15 percent while Collins is on 10 percent.

Simon Bridges, who is considered most likely to challenge Collins as leader, had not made any gains and was on 0.9 percent, while Christopher Luxon was on two percent.

The gap between National-Act and Labour-Greens has dropped to 10 percentage points.

The Green Party has helped bolster the overall centre left vote in the poll, going up two points to nine percent. NZ First was up slightly to 4.2 percent, and the Maori Party was on 2.4 percent.

In the Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll, Act is down one point to 16 percent, and the Greens were up 2 points to 9 (8.6 percent).

Te Pāti Māori is up one point to 2.3.

Talbot Mills Research also polls for the Labour Party, while Curia is National's traditional polling company.

The Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll was conducted from Monday 1 November to Monday 8 November 2021, and sampled 1000 eligible New Zealand voters.

The Talbot Mills Research poll of 1023 voters was taken from 29 October to 3 November and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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