National's support has stayed steady on 36 percent which would deliver 46 seats in parliament, however, ACT's support has fallen 2 percent to 10, meaning 13 seats.
So they would need NZ First's eight seats to reach the required 61 to form a government.
On 25 September Christopher Luxon announced he would be willing to work with NZ First if necessary, but his preference was a National-ACT coalition.
The centre left parties have maintained the same level of support, the poll found.
- National: 36 percent, steady (46 seats)
- Labour: 26 percent, steady (33 seats)
- Greens: 13 percent, steady (17 seats)
- ACT: 10 percent, down 2 points (13 seats)
- NZ First: 6 percent, steady (8 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 2 percent, steady (3 seats)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) has edged up to 2 percent, NZ Loyal remains on 1 percent, with Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis and Freedom New Zealand and New Zeal all attracting 1 percent each.
Some 10 percent said they did not know, or refused to say, who they would vote for - these were excluded from the percentage and seat calculations.
In the preferred prime minister stakes National leader Christopher Luxon has scored a 3 percent rise in support to 26 percent and edged ahead of Labour's Chris Hipkins who is on 25 (up two points). It is the first time Luxon has been the top choice for PM in the poll.
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 30 September and 3 October.
- Christopher Luxon: 26 percent - up 3 points
- Chris Hipkins: 25 percent - up 2 points
- Winston Peters: 4 percent, steady
- David Seymour: 3 percent, down 2 points
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 2 percent, up 1 point
- James Shaw: 2 percent, up 1 point
- Marama Davidson: 1 percent, down 1 point
- Nicola Willis: 1 percent, steady
- Liz Gunn: 1 percent, steady
- Rawiri Waititi, 1 percent, up 1 point
