Polls apart: Why are they so different?

National Party leader Simon Bridges said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's capital gains tax u-turn...
National Party leader Simon Bridges said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo: RNZ
A former president of the Labour Party says the market research industry is in tatters and shows different polling techniques need to be implemented.

Last night, Newshub and 1News published conflicting political poll results, leaving people scratching their heads.

The National Party rose in the 1News Colmar Brunton poll to 44 per cent and ahead of Labour, which dropped to 42 per cent - down 6 per cent from the April poll.

But according the Newshub Reid Research poll Labour would have enough to govern alone, skyrocketing to 50.8 per cent with National diving to 37.4 per cent.

Former Labour Party head Mike Williams told Newstalk ZB the results show polls should be managed in different ways to uncover people's preferences.

"The problem is the market research industry is in crisis at the moment ... polls have not been confirmed by actual results," he said.

He pointed out international polling results have been wrong recently, from the Brexit referendum in Britain to the Australian federal election last month.

"It's difficult that landlines are dying out, it's hard to get hold of cellphone numbers, some of these people are now doing online polling," Williams said.

"The only [solution] I can think of, and it's really expensive, is to actually go back to face-to-face polling, going back 30 to 40 years of the Heylen poll."

But despite the overall difference in the results, both polls had the same trend for National Party leader Simon Bridges, who fell behind fellow National MP Judith Collins in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

The 1News Colmar Brunton poll had Collins on 6 per cent as the preferred Prime Minister, ahead of Bridges on 5 per cent, but well below Jacinda Ardern on 45 per cent.

The Newshub Reid Research poll had Bridges on 4.2 per cent, below Collins on 7.1 per cent, while Ardern had 49 per cent support.

When asked if he would step down, Opposition leader Bridges said he wouldn't and the polls show the National Party is a "great team".

"We've got great team players and that's what middle New Zealand is seeing," Bridges told Newstalk ZB.

"It's just like a rugby team, having one star is no good if the entire team outside of that star can't defend, can't run, can't kick and can't score tries.

"I think what people see when they look at this botched Budget and the weakening economy, they see a National team that is much stronger."

Comments

"I think what people see when they look at this botched Budget and the weakening economy, they see a National team that is much stronger."
What a muppet.
I think what people see when they look at bridges, they see someone who is clinging desperately to the money and power.
Go back to barking at every passing car.

 

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