Further proof came yesterday that retailers have suffered a poor Christmas with seasonally adjusted electronic card transactions falling 1.2% in December from November.
For just retail industries, the fall was a seasonally adjusted 0.9%, while for core retail, which excluded vehicle-related industries, the fall was 1.6%.
Statistics New Zealand said all industries had recorded falls, except for fuel retailing, which rose 3.3%.
Electronic card transactions of durable items - including furniture, hardware and appliances - were down a seasonally adjusted 1.2%, while for consumables - such as food and liquor - the fall was 0.6%.
The decline follows increases of at least 1% in the total value of electronic card transactions for each of the preceding three months.
The actual value of transactions in the core retail series was 3.9% higher than in December 2009.
ASB economist Christine Leung said the broad-based falls in spending suggested the substantial increase in retail spending in September had been the result of households bringing forward the purchase of major items before the October GST increase.
"Fuel was the only category to record an increase in sales values, reflecting the 4.5% increase in petrol prices that had occurred over the December month.
"The continued increase in petrol prices in recent months is likely restraining households' discretionary spending."
Looking ahead, Ms Leung expected a continued recovery in the labour market to support an improvement in consumer confidence. That should underpin a gradual recovery in retail spending in the coming year.
The continued weakness in the household sector meant the Reserve Bank was likely to remain cautious, she said.
The consensus was that the Reserve Bank would not raise its official interest rate until June.
