On April 11, Civis discussed the impact of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system, predicting that former mayor Aaron Hawkins would lead, only to be overtaken as other candidates dropped out. Second and subsequent rankings for other well-supported candidates would count against him.
As it turned out, Mr Hawkins led until the last iteration.
Mr Stedman fell next, and Ms Galer was the big mover. Mr Hawkins picked up 529 more votes, while Ms Galer’s tally rose by 2033.
Where Civis was wrong was in underestimating Ms Galer. She surged into the news over the past month, overcoming a relative lack of profile in her characteristically forthright way.
Like her or not, she got her points across.
This included claims that Mr Hawkins’ administration had failed to face up to its responsibilities regarding South Dunedin flooding — a charge Mr Hawkins denied.
Ms Galer also won decisive public support from Crs Lee Vandervis and Russell Lund.
Civis had expected former councillors Mr Whiley (who finished 4th) or Mr Stedman (3rd) to be in the fight at the end with Mr Hawkins.
Civis had also confidently forecast that Mr Hawkins would have won comfortably under First Past the Post (FPP), including at least a mention of Ms Galer.
‘‘The non-Green, non-Left vote could easily have splintered among several former councillors, not just between Messrs Whiley and Stedman. Bill Acklin and Carmen Houlahan might have peeled off chunks of support, and Jo Galer, a spending hawk, would have taken some too.’’
More than ‘‘some’’ as it transpired.
In the first iteration, Mr Hawkins (7740 votes) was more than 2200 ahead of the only serious contenders: Ms Galer (5527), Mr Stedman (4722) and Mr Whiley (4472). The others were all well back.
Lync Aronson (5th) is worth a mention. He finished ahead of two former councillors, Bill Acklin and Carmen Houlahan, from the first iteration onwards.
Richard Knights was next, significantly ahead of the rest of the 14-strong field.
Given Ms Galer’s victory and her emphatic message on the necessity for hard calls on council spending, her role should be clear. Capping rates, however, is an ambitious goal.
Of course, Crs Vandervis and Lund, and Ms Galer herself, have areas of special interest where they might yet advocate for more spending.
One of the biggest tests will be relationships with other councillors. As an ODT editorial on Thursday said: ‘‘Being critical and questioning is an important part of the councillor’s role, but it should not come at the expense of finding ways to work constructively with others.’’
At the risk of being wrong, here’s one more prediction. Because the council is finely balanced, Mayor Sophie Barker’s casting vote may well be required on occasion.
Is it any wonder we are cynical about many public announcements and assurances?
The Crusaders’ chief executive said horses could not take part in the pre-game performance at the new Christchurch stadium.
‘‘We’ve tried our absolute best to make this work, and we want our Crusaders whānau to know we have left no stone unturned. Ultimately, safety must come first, even when the emotional cost is high.’’
Lo and behold, after ‘‘overwhelming feedback’’, a way was found for the six horses to return.
So much for the franchise’s ‘‘absolute best’’. So much for leaving ‘‘no stone unturned’’.
The obvious message? Don’t believe what officials say.
And if the public outcry is sufficient, the apparently impossible becomes feasible.
