Diplomacy decoded

Sometimes, in diplomacy, a translator is not enough. You need a code-breaker. This is very much the case with the latest round of diplomatic statements about the civil war in Syria, currently the biggest armed conflict anywhere in the world. So here they are, deciphered.

It all started on Tuesday, when Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced Russia would deliver S-300 air defence systems to Syria. He then cryptically added:

''We think this delivery is a stabilising factor and that such steps in many ways restrain some hotheads from exploring scenarios that would turn the conflict international with the involvement of outside forces.''

What on Earth does that mean?

What he was saying, decoded, was that giving Syria some state-of-the-art air defence missiles would enable it to shoot down American, British or French aircraft if they try to enforce a ''no-fly'' zone over Syria.

And the ''hot-heads'' he wants to deter are the Amer-ican, British and French political lead-ers who talk about doing exactly that.

The Nato countries did not lose a single aircraft when they acted as the rebels' air force in Libya two years ago, and Moscow wants to ensure they won't get a free ride if they try to do the same thing in Syria.

The S-300s will stop them from ''considering scenarios that would turn the conflict international with the involvement of outside forces'', and thus ''stabilise'' the situation in Syria by making Bashar al-Assad's regime safer.

Mr Ryabkov refused to say whether the missiles were actually on their way yet, and the Israelis promptly declared that they were not. But Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon helpfully added: ''I hope they will not leave, and if, God forbid, they reach Syria, we will know what to do.''

He is saying that if the missiles do reach Syria, the Israeli Air Force will attack and destroy them. But he calls it a vital issue for Israeli security, even though the missiles are purely defensive weapons, incapable of attacking Israel.

''Security'' in what sense?

In the sense that Israel sees freedom to launch air attacks on Syria any time it feels the need as vital to its security policy. The S-300s would make it more dangerous to bomb Syria, so Mr Yaalon sees them as threatening Israel's ''security''. It's an innovative use of language, to say the least.

And then there's the European Union, which met last Monday to consider ending the blanket arms embargo against all parties to the fighting in Syria.

The embargo was duly ended and British Prime Minister David Cameron declared it was a major step ''to reinforce international efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Syria''.

What Mr Cameron means is with no EU arms embargo any more, individual EU members (like Britain and France) will be free to send arms to any Syrian rebel group of their choice (but not the nasty Islamists, of course).

Since giving them better weapons would put more pressure on Mr Assad to negotiate or quit, it therefore ''reinforces international efforts to reach a diplomatic solution''. Obviously. And President Barack Obama most eloquently said nothing at all.

He said nothing about the EU's initiative, because it's so confused and contradictory it's embarrassing to talk about it.

He said nothing about the Israeli threat to attack the Russian anti-aircraft missiles because Israel is a ''friend and ally'', and it's best not to notice when its threats to attack other countries get too brazen.

And he said nothing about the Russian S-300s, because he is probably secretly glad they are being sent to Syria.

Mr Obama is not one of the ''hotheads'' who want to intervene in Syria, but he is coming under increasing pressure from those who do.

Senator John McCain slipped across the Turkish border into Syria for an hour on Tuesday and came back swearing it would be easy to ensure arms aid went only to the right rebels (i.e. not the Islamist ones).

So it actually helps Mr Obama if the Syrian air defences get better, because it makes the case for ''no-fly zones'' and other forms of military intervention even less persuasive.

Gwynne Dyer is an independent London journalist.

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