The run-in to this year's general election is proving to be one of the most unpredictable in living memory. Expect the unexpected seems to be the new modus operandi.
Monday's resignation by United Future leader Peter Dunne, the MP for Ohariu, took most by complete surprise.
He follows Labour leader Andrew Little and Greens co-leader Metiria Turei to become the third political party head to stand down this month - and there is only a little over a month until the election.
Mr Dunne cited poor polling and ''soundings'' from the past few weeks which indicated his electorate was in the mood for change.
Mr Dunne will have been worried about the gains being made by Labour's Greg O'Connor, the former Police Association president in Ohariu, after the Greens stood aside for him. Now, Mr O'Connor and National's Brett Hudson will square off for the seat.
National is trying to sound unperturbed, but the loss of one its support partners is, of course, a blow - particularly as Labour surges in the polls under new leader Jacinda Ardern. While it may not miss Mr Dunne to any great extent on policy, it will be worried about the numbers - however it tries to spin it.
National has traditionally encouraged its supporters to vote for Mr Dunne over its candidate in Ohariu to ensure a United Future presence in Parliament and a National-led majority. Now, with the Maori Party (another support party) indicating a softening of its relationship with Labour under new deputy leader Kelvin Davis, it faces the reality of NZ First leader Winston Peters as king- or queen-maker.
This will still be the case even if its Epsom electorate deal with support party Act and leader David Seymour continues to hold, for Mr Peters will demand far more for himself and his party if he is required to help shore up a National-led coalition.
Expect the deal-making to continue.
The uncertainty continues in ''Greens-land'', too, after the resignations of two key staff. This only adds to the party's dreadful few weeks, which began with the revelations of Ms Turei's welfare fraud. Sadly, the issue of inequality which Ms Turei tried to highlight has been sidelined as the party tries to resurrect itself in the face of low pollings. Co-leader James Shaw's decision to go it alone until the election and not appoint another co-leader to replace Ms Turei seems increasingly unwise.
Meanwhile, the Opportunities Party leader Gareth Morgan continues to stick to his guns over his ''lipstick on a pig'' comment, which many believed was aimed at Ms Ardern and labelled misogynistic.
Election day may not seem far away, but with every day offering something new, there is plenty of time for more gaffes and upsets.
The pulse of politics has quickened, and many are acting accordingly. Mr Dunne is not the only one to see the tide may be turning. The Greens may be flailing, but the issue of water quality has been seized on by Labour. Farmers, too, are jumping on the bandwagon; a group pledged yesterday to improve the swimmability of New Zealand's rivers.
The positioning will continue today as the Government opens its books. Expect more policies from National and Labour (and NZ First as the ever-likely main coalition partner) as it becomes clearer what money is available to turn promises into reality.
