‘‘Seems’’, because the personalities at the helm of the warring countries are too mercurial, too quixotic, to speak with certainty about their likely actions, and the area is such a tinderbox that the slightest spark might set it alight again.
But, for now, the shooting seems to have quietened, if not entirely stopped.
The United States has called a halt to its bombing, Iranian retaliations appear to have also ceased.
The major variable is Israel, which appears to still be pounding away at various targets in Lebanon despite the international community asking them to stop while negotiations continue.
Israel, however, is — as always — pursuing its own agenda, keeping the world on tenterhooks.
Iran claims the ceasefire includes Lebanon and says it has closed the strait — the crucial artery through which much of the world’s fossil fuel energy supplies flows.
The US claims Lebanon— a ‘‘skirmish’’ — falls outside the terms of the agreement and that the strait is open for shipping.
Whoever is right, it does not make for a stable starting place for negotiations when US Vice-president J D Vance and his team meet whoever has been left in charge of Iran to thrash out details for what, hopefully, will be a more solid settlement.
The meeting is scheduled to be held in Islamabad on Saturday.
Few countries qualify to be listened to with due courtesy by the countries fighting this war: Pakistan has emerged as a surprise broker between the belligerents, and its involvement is mature and welcome.
Certainly Pakistan’s attitude has been more responsible than the juvenile antics of the President of the United States, whose conducting of diplomacy through social media has all the hallmarks of a child yelling ever more loudly until they get what they want.
Mr Trump’s claim two days ago that a civilisation was going to end that evening was breathtaking in its crudity.
Despite the many atrocious utterances he has made in the past, this outrageous intimation that he was effectively considering committal of a probable war crime plunged new depths.
Thankfully, things have not — yet — reached that point.
The White House gloated that Mr Trump’s hyperbolic language had been the key to bringing Iran to the table.
The rest of the world just shook its head in sorry despair that the leader of the free world chose to express himself in such a crass and tactless manner.
There is a persistent pattern of behaviour here that his critics have labelled as Taco — “Trump Always Chickens Out.” Hectoring, blustering and bullying, followed by a retreat.
Taco may or may not be a thing, but it is certainly no way to conduct international affairs — teetering on the brink of an apocalypse, leaving the world to hope that the US president blinks, rethinks and retreats.
As the turmoil on world markets and the tumult in the economy of far-off New Zealand have shown, the globe is too interconnected for one country’s pursuit of its own agenda not to affect the peaceful existence of other countries.
While many here will have breathed a deep sigh of relief at the ceasefire announcement, this is no time to relax.
For a start, the ceasefire actually has to hold. Then a workable, long-term solution has to be reached.
In the interim, energy shipments will take weeks, if not months, to get back to something like regularity, and the inflationary impacts of the energy shortage are still to fully resonate through the economy.
Fuel prices will likely not fall back to pre-conflict levels for some time as brokers cautiously watch the progress, or otherwise, of peace talks.
Considerable uncertainty lies ahead, but at least there is progress to report, and more hope that a return to normality might be in the offing.
