It is good that Dunedin's civic and business leaders are reportedly trying their hardest to attract international oil exploration companies to use the city as a base for operations, but it is necessary some consideration also be given to keeping community and business expectations at a realistic level.
Those involved need to keep in mind that there are other hopes and plans for the development of the Dunedin waterfront that may not be in harmony with such industrial projects, and there is also a small, perhaps growing, sentiment for developing the harbourside for recreational rather than commercial purposes.
At least the council and others have the advantage of drawing on the 40 years of experience New Plymouth has had since the Maui oilfield was discovered in studying the impact of such a development on harbour, town and residents.
Today, the oil and gas sector is reportedly the biggest single contributor to the Taranaki region's gross domestic product, making up 17% of the total, and predicted to grow to 38% by 2026. Following the discovery, there was much enhanced port and aviation activity, 24 hours every day, many extra jobs were almost immediately created together with the arrival of new trades and skills.
It must also be remembered that the discoveries offshore were enhanced by the several onshore oil and gas fields - an unlikely prospect in the South - and that even today, after four decades, about 3000 are employed in the industry and its supporting services in Taranaki, far short of the 5000 some optimistic estimates are predicting for Dunedin should a discovery be made in the Great South Basin.
Taranaki's oil boom has definitely been an economic boon but it has also had its negative consequences.
There has been conflict between the industry and landowners with respect to the onfield sites and the location of pipelines and the like, and there have environmental concerns onshore and offshore, although none has been on a major scale; nor has the experience been quite the universal bonanza on the scale some early enthusiasts predicted.
In the early 1970s, there were short-term but painful consequences for locals with home-ownership ambitions who found, almost overnight, such a demand for property that they were effectively squeezed out of the market for a time.
The oil and gas industry has not supplanted agriculture, especially dairy farming, in the province, although it has added considerable economic benefit for New Plymouth, a town half the size of Dunedin, and some smaller towns in the expansion of professional services and the existing industrial engineering base.
Dunedin and the South, generally, are far from getting even close to that prospect. Oil and gas have not yet been discovered in quantities offshore, let alone onshore; further investment will have to be economic and the capital required for it is huge.
If oil is discovered offshore - the only realistic possibility at present - it might not be extracted: much will depend on costs of recovery and global oil prices. It is likely that any discoveries will be in either the Great South Basin or the adjoining Canterbury basin, and Dunedin may well be too distant to be preferred over the only other serious candidate, Bluff.
It is notable that a Southland Energy Consortium of 170 companies has been courting explorers for at least the past year.
Talk of onshore oil storage facilities and port facilities for super-tankers is premature, given the probable location of any strike, since it is far from likely that other than offshore discharge facilities will be required, oil being pumped directly into tankers from the wellhead. It is a gross exaggeration to suggest a discovery could "completely revolutionise Dunedin".
That is not to say the city - and the Otago Regional Council and Port Otago Ltd - should not make the effort to be prepared to accommodate the exploration/test drilling phase of the prospect, and in this respect it is already well suited.
A shore-based heliport exists, as do wharf facilities for the relatively small drilling rig tender vessels. Probably, sufficient engineering expertise already exists in the city to service initial needs, as does office and other accommodation. Beyond that, everything depends on the nature and location of any discovery.
In the meantime, it would do no harm - and probably much good - if the marketing plan presently being devised was made public at the earliest opportunity, and subject to community debate.
