Sometimes the full force of news strikes at once. And given the tendency of news organisations to look for drama, what at first sight is portrayed as potentially catastrophic on occasions turns out to be less than the real deal.
Sometimes, however, it takes time for the full impact of a natural disaster or large complex announcements to be revealed. Such is the case with Monday’s 7.8-magnitude earthquake. Given its complexity, it even had to be upgraded from 7.5 after a few days, as earth scientists examined it more closely.
As each day passes, more emerges about the destruction and aftermath. This is the same pattern as with the two big Christchurch quakes. As weeks turned to months and then years, the breadth and depth of the damage became apparent, and the extent and length of the restoration stretched out.
There must be similar fears for North Canterbury and Marlborough. Already, there is speculation the main truck railway line and the main highway might never be resurrected. Already, there are severe concerns about the future of Kaikoura. Already, there are worries about the short- and long-term effect on tourism.
Meanwhile, the state of buildings in Wellington, particularly on the reclaimed waterfront, is proving to be shocking. More are deemed unsafe each day. Serious questions definitely need to be asked about how beams separated from floors in the relatively new Statistics building, and how so many others are unsound.
What happens, then, when the big one strikes Wellington itself? How fortunate this quake was just after midnight on Monday when the central city was deserted and at low tide. How much more damage will be revealed in Wellington and at CentrePort in the coming weeks?
Surely, there are lessons here, and from Christchurch, about the importance of decentralisation of services and administration. All the Government’s eggs should not be in that shaky basket that is downtown Wellington.
It was fortunate for the nation as a whole that North Canterbury and north to Marlborough are sparsely populated, although that is no solace for reeling people and communities. Nevertheless, despite the soothing words from Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister Bill English, the quake is a major economic setback. It was soon realised the direct costs would rise from hundreds of millions of dollars to billions. What, too, about the blow to New Zealand’s reputation as a safe and secure destination far from the terrorism and troubles of much of the planet? What about the long-term costs for inter-island transport and trade.
Mr Key, whatever citizens’ attitudes to other aspects of his leadership, has so far proved deft in his responses. He came across as concerned, realistic and reassuring. While the books will be damaged — and tax adjustments might be forced off the agenda — governments can be boosted by crises and the sense of national togetherness. The focus turns to Government and its reaction, leaving opposition parties just to complain.
Given the way such disasters unfold, the best approach is to take one step at a time. It is wise not to rush into promises, dealing first with the emergencies, before taking stock as time goes on. It is sensible not to panic or overreact.
It is fine to speculate, as Mr Key did with the future of State Highway 1, but it is best not to be pinned down yet. Let realism and the extent of the problems sink in first.At the moment, the people of the upper east of the South Island and Wellington are, at a minimum, badly shaken up. The situation for many is far worse. As Christchurch has illustrated, more issues will emerge for them, and a long difficult slog lies ahead.
