Dairying has been the darling of the New Zealand's agricultural sector - and the export economy - in recent years.
While declining numbers of red meat farmers have battled with prices, lack of reinvestment and issues with industry structure, their dairying cousins have been farming the proverbial cash-cow.
But there has been a jolt back to earth these past few months, with international dairy prices continuing to fall sharply. A near-perfect global production season, softer demand and inventory build-up in China, coupled with its slowing economy, have taken their toll.
While sheep and beef farmers have seen improved prices and outlooks, dairy farmer confidence has slumped into negative territory.
Fonterra recently slashed its opening milk price forecast for the 2014-15 season from $7 to $6, which, when compared with last season's record $8.40, would amount to a reduction in the collective income of dairy farmers of about $4.3 billion, or 1.9% of GDP.
Mostly that revision was expected, with GlobalDairyTrade auction prices tumbling 40% since early February, while the New Zealand dollar has remained stubbornly high.
The lag from the latest GDT won't be felt for some months, but given the successive declines, pressure can be expected on the final payout for the coming season and beyond.
Economists are hinting that a milk price in the $5 range for 2014-15 is a possibility; industry body DairyNZ has said $6 is a break-even payout for many dairy farmers.
Drops in lamb or beef schedules don't make mainstream media headlines. Drops in dairy payout forecasts do, and much has been made about both the slump in prices and the milk price forecast revision.
But ASB rural economist Nathan Penny is right when he says it is important to retain some context. This season's milk price was heading to the modest levels recorded in 2011-12 ($6.08) and 2012-13 ($5.84) and, as a result, had come full circle.
Moreover, the milk price for those three years highlighted just how exceptional last season's $8.40 was.
As Mr Penny put it: ''Whenever you stand next to the NBA's Steven Adams (height 2.13m), you will always look short.''
It must also be remembered that a milk price in the $3 range was not in the too distant past - $3.87 in 2006-07, $3.85 in 2005-06, $3.97 in 2003-04 and $3.34 in 2002-03.
There is still a lot of milk to go into the tankers before the end of the 2014-15 season and the $6 forecast is still that - a forecast. About 80% of product for this season's milk price has yet to have prices set and a lot can happen between now and the season's end.
A degree of recovery of prices is expected to kick in over the remainder of 2014, but the scale of that recovery - and the timing - is anyone's guess.
In the meantime, farmers are rightly being advised to pay close attention to farm costs this season and to be conservative when making farm decisions.
This has not always been the case. On a rising schedule and expanding industry, growing production has been king.
This may prompt farmers to look closer at their margins and their costs of production, which is not a bad thing given burgeoning debt in the industry.
The dairy sector carries the majority of all agricultural debt, which stood at just under $53 billion in June - up $1.9 billion on the corresponding month last year. Those who have borrowed heavily will be particularly nervous.
Less income for farmers also means less spending in the surrounding communities. Last year, dairying pumped an estimated $727 million into the Otago regional economy.
Figures from DairyNZ show the estimated drop in farmer income for Otago, from a $7 to a $6 milk price, would be $92 million, while neighbouring Southland faced a $218 million drop.
The reality is that volatility is now part of everyday life. It might be a little uncomfortable at the moment but it is temporary.
Everything goes in cycles and, like the age-old adage, what goes up, must come down. The cream may have been skimmed from the top of the bottle this year, but it is too early yet to cry over spilt milk.
