Yes, it was a by-election and, yes, strange things happen in by-elections.
And yes, there was an extraordinarily low turnout, a wild card in the shape of Gaurav Sharma was in the field, it was a seat National formerly held with a 7000-plus majority, and the weather was awful.
But no matter how hard Labour might be trying to excuse away the result in Saturday’s Hamilton West by-election, it is still nothing less than a stinging rebuke of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her government.
Tama Potaka won the seat for National by a provisional majority of 2285, convincingly reversing the 6267 majority which Dr Sharma won as the Labour candidate in 2020.
Even if you add the 1462 votes Dr Sharma won on Saturday running as a spoiler, Labour’s candidate Georgie Dansey would still have finished second, and by a margin.
The fact that such a dramatic reversal of fortunes for Labour does not come as much of a surprise speaks volumes of the malaise the party is in.
Paradoxically, it might just be the shock to the system that Labour needs.
Should Saturday’s result be repeated in 11 months or so time in a general election, Labour would be lucky to return any MPs off its list, the provincial seats it won from National would probably return to the blue pen, and some supposedly safe urban seats could be lost.
The red citadel of Dunedin could even possibly be in play ... and before you scoff, did anyone pick Labour to win Ilam in 2020?
National had won the party vote in both Dunedin North and Dunedin South before, and the full impact of border changes to create the new seats of Dunedin — and particularly Taieri — before the 2020 election were masked by the unprecedented Labour landslide.
Should the sentiment which led to the Hamilton heave-ho persist, and should it extend nationwide, all Labour’s 2023 candidates should be very nervous indeed.
National is obviously the big winner from Saturday but Act New Zealand’s Jamie McDowall was a solid third, albeit on a low turnout.
Their combined 56% of the vote aligns with recent national political polling and reinforces the perception that a change of government next year is entirely possible.
Dr Sharma, who wrecked his own political career in the process, may also feel that in defeat he has won a victory of sorts over his former colleagues.
The Greens and New Zealand First will have been glad to have sat this one out: each party’s prospects of becoming a potential governing partner remain untainted by the by-election.
But Labour, which splashed the cash in Hamilton West and dispatched Ms Ardern there several times to campaign, faces a miserable summer trying to save a ship which if it is not sinking is definitely taking on water fast.
It needs new energy, new ideas and a new vision — and quickly — or it will be staring at the wrong side of another epic landslide.
