We adhere to trends, sometimes for rational reasons and often irrationally.
This extends well beyond, say, clothes or events to decisions on just about everything. Judgements on where to live and where to undertake university study are heavily influenced by what is in vogue.
Wellington has lost its "absolutely positive" cache after years when it was the in-place to live. This week’s census figures also tell the turnaround tale. The public service cuts are another blow, although they should help dampen what had been runaway house prices.
Meanwhile, UC (you see) the University of Canterbury’s numbers climbing. Young people moaned about how dead the city was after the earthquakes. In 2015 the domestic roll was only 12,695. By 2020 it was 15,575 and 17,415 the following year. By last year it had increased a further 1130, a 6.5% increase between 2021 and 2023 and a 19.1% rise from 2020.
Canterbury has reported a whopping 5%-plus increase for this year. It’s on a roll. The families of the managerial and professional classes, the source of most university students, have decided UC is the place to be. It is in fashion.
Christchurch itself has become the flavour of more than just the month, even if the Crusaders rugby team has crashed. An estimated 10,000 Aucklanders shifted to Christchurch last year. Much cheaper house prices are a palpable lure.
Next door, Lincoln University was down and just about out in 2019 with 1710 domestic students. The 2023 tally was 3370.
Civis doesn’t find Christchurch particularly attractive and wouldn’t want to live there, but lots of others do, at least for now.
New Zealand’s biggest university, Auckland (with large international student numbers) is drifting. Its 2023 domestic tally of 36,330 is down 3.4% on 2021.
What we care deeply about in the South is the University of Otago’s health. If it thrives so does Dunedin.
Using the same datasets, the domestic roll was 17,920 in 2015. It reached 19,860 in 2021 and edged ahead the next year to 19,805 before falling to 18,995 last year, a 4.4% fall from 2021.
A further 2% decline from last year has been reported for this year.
The university has outlined reasons why it is struggling with roll numbers. Many have some validity.
The cost of staying at the colleges has bumped towards an eye-watering $20,000. The year 13 school-leaver cohort numbers last year and the year before are at their lowest in a decade. Importantly, because jobs have been plentiful, pupils are more likely to go straight to work and students to study for fewer semesters.
Other small changes add up. Students from affluent families are studying overseas in greater numbers. Gap years are more likely to be taken for financial reasons. Fewer secondary school pupils are achieving University Entrance and ongoing border issues knock back international student numbers.
It sounds convincing except for what is happening up the road at UC, and for that matter Lincoln. They are not lining up these excuses.
Perhaps Canterbury is piggy-backing Christchurch’s resurgence. Perhaps, though, the poor staff morale at Otago is seeping through to student satisfaction. Has Otago lost its mojo?
Will the publicity around the devastating death of student Sophia Crestani affect coming enrolments at a time of year when tertiary location decisions are often being considered?
Is the party reputation of the campus these days a help or hindrance?
What difference will the new vice-chancellor Grant Robertson make, especially in those so-important perceptions?
Trends and fashions are such fickle fiends. They should never be taken lightly.
