Following a very dry start to the year, southerners will have no trouble in believing the first six months of 2022 have been New Zealand’s second-warmest on record.
And Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the odds of that continuing into another warmer-than-average summer (2022-23) were increasing.
The average national temperature was 15degC between January 1 and June 30 - 1.2degC above the long-term 1981-2010 norm.
"Of the 10 warmest January-Junes on record, five have now occurred since 2016, with 2016 being the warmest (1.4degC above average)."
Mr Noll said the first six months of last year were the ninth-warmest on record, but the heat of the final half of the year made 2021 New Zealand’s warmest year on record.
For Southland, southern Otago and Stewart Island, abnormally dry or drought conditions developed during the summer.
The dryness persisted and became more widespread during autumn, resulting in the Ministry for Primary Industries announcing a medium-scale adverse event for Southland, Clutha and Queenstown-Lakes.
Abnormal autumn dryness in Waikato and South Auckland also led to a medium-scale adverse event classification in May.
Despite a wet and stormy start to July, Mr Noll said temperatures for the majority of the country remained above average for this time of year.
As for the rest of the year, the continued influence of La Nina on New Zealand’s climate should continue to keep temperatures on the warmer side.
"It’s probably going to be another hot year when all is said and done.
"We will likely get occasional plumes of tropical moisture approaching from the north, the latter influenced by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.
"The prospect for more easterly-quarter winds could see western areas of both islands turn drier during spring, which will need to be monitored, particularly as summer approaches."
Later in the year, New Zealand’s coastal sea temperatures could again heat up following a record marine heatwave earlier in the year, he said.
"This would see the odds for another warmer than average summer increase."
