Highlanders need luck on their side

Freddie Burns trains with the Highlanders ahead of Sunday’s clash with the Brumbies in Canberra....
Freddie Burns trains with the Highlanders ahead of tomorrow’s clash with the Brumbies in Canberra. PHOTO: GERARD O’BRIEN
Wild horses might not be able to drag the Highlanders into the Super Rugby Pacific playoffs.

But the Brumbies could do them a massive favour by either slumping into complacency or finding creative ways to have a shocker in Canberra tomorrow afternoon.

This is, regrettably, another game that has a relative whiff of predestination about it.

The Brumbies are on another level in terms of competition standings, international class and all-round efficiency, and the Highlanders have deliberately taken over an under-strength team with one eye on more winnable games over the next two weekends.

So, something weird (the Brumbies turning into nags) or something special (the sputtering Highlanders finding a wonderful performance from somewhere) really needs to happen if this is to end in victory for the visitors.

The reality is it might be best to just hope for a solid Highlanders performance and some fortune from the injury gods ahead of the must-win Dunedin fixtures against the Rebels and Reds.

Oddly, though, the form in this clash favours the Highlanders.

They have won their last four games against the Brumbies as the road team — their longest winning run in that regard.

Some of the season statistics make for interesting reading, while suggesting this will not necessarily be a great spectacle but will be more about the educated boot and the dreaded maul.

Only the Waratahs (420) have carried for fewer metres per game than the Highlanders (425) and Brumbies (450) this season.

The Highlanders have crossed the gainline on 59 carries per game, the fewest of any team and five per game fewer than the Brumbies.

Interestingly, the Brumbies are rolling at 35 points per game (second in the competition) despite being laggards in categories like offloads (last) and defenders beaten (10th).

The capital city men are just really polished at the set piece, and surprisingly physical for an Australian team.

Wallabies props Alan Alaalatoa and James Slipper provide the grunt, Rob Valetini and Pete Samu the go-forward, Force-bound halfback Nic White the direction and chirp, and Len Ikitau and Tom Wright the potency out wide.

The Highlanders are at long odds, and are clearly in danger of missing the playoffs, but captain Billy Harmon said their approach had not changed.

"I suppose, for us, every week is just about focusing on that task, week by week.

"We’re not thinking about ‘we need to win this one for this to happen’.

"It’s going out there, building on last week’s performance and just playing our game. We’re always trying to grow that belief, and I know the boys believe in our game, and we know we can compete with the best when we get it right."

The Brumbies would present quite a contrasting challenge to last week’s opponents, the Chiefs, Harmon said.

"I think their style of play is completely different.

"The Brumbies back their structure, they back their discipline, getting penalties, kicking into the corner, mauls. Whereas the Chiefs have that attacking threat and can score from anywhere."

Harmon hopes the Highlanders can stay disciplined and not let the Brumbies utilise their fearsome rolling maul from attacking lineouts.

"It comes down to the more times we can limit them having a maul inside our 22m. So that’s going to come from discipline, and good defensive passages where they kick back to us because they’re not getting momentum."

The Highlanders will need to get some magic out of Folau Fakatava, some peak physicality out of Shannon Frizell and Hugh Renton, and some wizardry from Jona Nareki if the Canberra raid is to be successful.

There will also be acid on props Daniel Lienert-Brown and Saula Ma’u to fill the massive boots of Ethan de Groot and Shannon Frizell.

"Jermaine and old de Groot have probably been two of our best players. They’ve been playing unreal," Harmon said.

"Danny is a bit older but he’s been playing some of his best footy, so for him it’s just about being confident and playing his game. He brings a bit of leadership to the front row.

"Saula is a huge man, and he’s been playing really well. It’s an awesome opportunity for him."

Super Rugby

Canberra, Sunday, 4.35pm

Highlanders: Connor Garden-Bachop, Scott Gregory, Fetuli Paea, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Jona Nareki, Freddie Burns, Folau Fakatava, Hugh Renton, Billy Harmon (captain), James Lentjes, Josh Dickson, Shannon Frizell, Saula Ma’u, Andrew Makalio, Daniel Lienert-Brown. Reserves: Rhys Marshall, Ayden Johnstone, Jermaine Ainsley, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Sean Withy, James Arscott, Mitch Hunt, Jonah Lowe.

Brumbies: Tom Wright, Andy Muirhead, Len Ikitau, Ollie Sapsford, Corey Toole, Noah Lolesio, Nic White, Pete Samu, Jahrome Brown, Rob Valetini, Nick Frost, Darcy Swain, Alan Alaalatoa (captain), Lachlan Lonergan, James Slipper. Reserves: Connal McInerny, Blake Schoupp, Rhys van Nek, Tom Hooper, Luke Reimer, Ryan Lonergan, Jack Debreczeni, Hudson Creighton.

hayden.meikle@odt.co.nz

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