You either like this format or you don’t.
Some are absolutely fine with eight teams in a 12-team competition qualifying for the Super Rugby playoffs as it (a) keeps the season alive for more clubs for longer, and (b) gives more teams a chance to taste sudden-death rugby.
Some think it is just dreadful, and rewards too many mediocre teams.
That was certainly the case in 2022 when, with all due respect, a Highlanders team that won just four games and had no business being in the playoffs was able to qualify.
But you couldn’t blame the Highlanders for that — they didn’t make the rules.
Any sporting competition that uses a playoff system is effectively saying: qualify for the post-season any way you can, and once the playoffs begin, everybody has a chance.
Last year was rather unusual in that a very clear bottom five emerged, and the Highlanders were simply the least worst team.
The situation is different in 2023. Now, a TOP five has cleared away, and six teams — separated by just six points heading into this round — are chasing the remaining three playoff spots.
It could mean the Highlanders need to win three of their remaining five games, especially as they are playing two direct rivals for playoff spots.
Here is how it might all play out.
v Chiefs
Dunedin, Friday night
Win or loss: Seriously? The Highlanders will need to discover something spectacular, and hope the rampant Chiefs have an off night. Very difficult to see how this goes the way of the home team.
v Brumbies
Canberra, May 14
Win or loss: They could not beat the Force or the Waratahs in Australia. Hard to picture the Highlanders rolling a very good Brumbies side.
v Rebels
Dunedin, May 20
Win or loss: The first of two crunch home games against Australian opposition that might determine whether the playoffs are achievable. The Rebels have the same 3-6 record as the Highlanders but have occasionally looked better than that. I will give it to the Highlanders.
v Reds
Dunedin, May 26
Win or loss: A fourth six-day turnaround for the Highlanders. The Reds should be highly motivated to win, as it might seal their own passage to the playoffs. But I like this match-up for the Highlanders, and they should seal a fifth win.
v Blues
Auckland, June 2
Win or loss: Nah, can’t see it. It was 60-20 in round one, remember.
Obviously, several other games will dictate the final standings.
My guesswork — remembering we only care who places sixth to eighth, as the top five are out of sight — has the Waratahs (getting better when they are full strength) finishing on 30 points, the Fijian Drua (with three out of five games at home) on 28, and the Reds (only needing to win one more game) on 26 to claim the final playoff spot.
The Highlanders would be on 23 points, having won one more game than last year but missing the playoffs.
They might need to conjure a miracle from this point.
